The Home Run Derby has a new look this year, and it is not just the eight guys stepping into the box. Gone is the clock that ruled the event since 2015 -- now every hitter gets a hard swing count instead of a timer, 20 cuts in round 1 and 15 apiece after that. That single change flips the whole strategy of the night from stamina and pacing to pure, uncut bat speed.
Codify laid out exactly who has that gear right now, and it is not a subtle gap at the top of the leaderboard.
Average Bat Speed (MPH) So Far This Year: 79.9 Junior Caminero 79.2 Jordan Walker 77.3 Jac Caglianone 77.1 Kyle Schwarber 77.0 Willson Contreras 75.2 Munetaka Murakami 74.3 Bryce Harper 72.6 Ben Rice
Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker are sitting well clear of the pack at 79.9 and 79.2 mph average bat speed, with Jac Caglianone, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras bunched right behind. Under the old clock-based format, endurance mattered almost as much as pop -- guys who could keep unloading for 4 or 5 minutes straight had an edge. Take the clock away and it becomes a pure power contest, and that is exactly the read Eno Sarris is pushing.
Eno Sarris breaks down which sluggers are built to cash in on the new no-clock format.
Sarris' argument is straightforward: with a finite number of swings instead of a running clock, the hitters who do the most damage per cut -- not the ones who can chain homers together fastest -- are the ones best positioned to win. That is a real structural shift for a field that includes Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the first time the two Phillies teammates have ever squared off in the same Derby, on their own turf at Citizens Bank Park. Home-crowd energy is one thing, but the new rules mean it will not save anyone who runs out of pop halfway through a round.
Then there is the weather, which on paper should not matter for a stat this granular but somehow always does in the Derby. Every ball hit tonight either gets a boost or fights through it depending on what the air is doing over Philly.
Meteorologist Kevin Roth's forecast graphic pointing to prime hitting conditions for tonight's Derby.
Roth's forecast is calling the conditions borderline ideal for hitting, which lines up with the vibe around this field -- lots of raw juice, a park that already plays a little hitter-friendly, and now a format that rewards max-effort swings over rationed ones. MLB Trade Rumors is already running a poll on who takes it down, and with Schwarber sitting inside the top 5 in bat speed and Harper reunited with his own building, Philadelphia has a real shot at hosting its own winner.
MLB Trade Rumors polling fans on who wins the 2026 Home Run Derby.
None of this guarantees anything once the lights are actually on -- bat speed numbers are a regular-season average, not a Derby simulation, and plenty of favorites have flamed out in this event before. But between the rule change rewarding raw power, a leaderboard with real separation at the top, and a forecast that is practically begging for a launch angle, tonight in Philly has all the ingredients for a legitimately great Derby.