It's early July, which means the trade deadline chatter is heating up faster than the actual weather. And according to Jon Heyman, one name sits above everyone else on the board: Luis Arraez, the Giants' batting-title machine who signed a one-year, $12 million deal with San Francisco this past offseason.
Among the All-Stars, Luis Arraez is the most likely to be traded. Wacha and Chapman have a reasonable chance to be traded. Buxton, Ryan, Webb and Goodman all should probably be considered long shots to go for now
The irony is thick here. Arraez spent the last two years with the Padres before bolting for a division rival in free agency, and now the same Padres are reportedly among the teams that could use exactly what he provides at second base. He's reportedly hitting .326 and has quietly cleaned up his defense, the kind of profile that makes rental bats disappear off the board fast in July. San Francisco isn't buying this year, and a pending free agent hitting like that on an expiring deal is about as clean a sell as it gets.
Behind Arraez, Heyman flagged Michael Wacha and Matt Chapman as "reasonable chance" trade pieces, which is a notch below "most likely" but still very much on the radar. Wacha is reportedly in the middle of arguably his best season, leading the American League in innings pitched with a stack of quality starts, and he's got one year of club control left after 2026 at $14 million plus a $14 million option for 2028 — the kind of contract that lets a rebuilding team recoup value without it being a total salary dump.
Chapman is the trickier case. He's reportedly still owed roughly $100 million running from 2027 through 2030, and that number alone scares off most of the League. Moving him this summer would likely require the Giants eating a chunk of that deal, which is a much bigger organizational decision than shipping out a rental like Arraez.
Then there's the group Heyman waved off entirely — Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Logan Webb and Hunter Goodman were all listed as long shots to move right now, which is really just a way of saying: don't hold your breath on the bigger names yet. The board can shift fast once contenders start feeling pressure in the standings, but for now Arraez looks like the surest bet to change addresses before the deadline hits.
Worth watching over the next few weeks: whether the Padres actually circle back for the guy they let walk, or whether a team like the Yankees or Mets muscles into the bidding for a proven .300 hitter at a position of need. Either way, Arraez picked a great time to have a great year.