Sunday's series finale at Citi Field has a 1:40 PM ET first pitch, and on paper it's a mismatch — Atlanta is 22 games over .500, New York is 8 games under, and the Mets just got body-bagged by the Cardinals 7-0 and 9-2 on Tuesday and Wednesday before salvaging Thursday's finale 5-4. The pitching matchup featured above is where this game gets interesting. Bryce Elder has been Atlanta's quiet revelation, sitting at a 2.66 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and giving up 3 runs or fewer in all but 2 of his 14 starts per Bleacher Nation. That is exactly the kind of pitcher a banged-up Mets lineup does not want to see on a Sunday matinee, especially with Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco still working their way back. Lindor is reportedly targeting the third week of June for a return, so this series is not the cavalry-arrives spot just yet. The Braves are not exactly whole themselves. Ronald Acuna Jr. is on the 10-day IL with left hamstring tightness, Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin are both out at catcher, and the rotation is missing Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Hurston Waldrep. Atlanta has navigated it because the lineup remains deep and the back end of the bullpen has held — but they did just split four awkward games in Chicago against the White Sox, including a 0-0 result on Wednesday. For New York, Sunday's day-of-the-week math matters too: lose this one and they head into next week at 30-39, with a Lindor-less lineup and a wild-card hill that keeps getting steeper. Manager Carlos Mendoza needs a clean start from his Sunday guy and at least one early run against Elder, because the Braves bullpen is not the spot to play catch-up. Win it, and the homestand suddenly looks salvageable with Lindor on the horizon. Bottom line: Atlanta is the better team, the healthier team relative to who matters, and they're throwing the better starter. The Mets' path is narrow but real — short outing from Elder, a Pete Alonso swing or two, and pray the bullpen holds. The Braves' path is just to show up.