First pitch is 6:10 PM ET at the Trop, and the market is treating this like a get-right spot for the home team. Pinnacle has the Rays at -173 on the moneyline with the total sitting at 7.5, which is exactly what you'd expect when Nick Martinez is on the mound against a team that just got 7 runs from its lineup against Detroit.
Martinez has been doing things that don't really happen — a 1.51 ERA through 10 starts, the lowest mark by a traditional starter through 9 starts in Rays franchise history, and 10 consecutive starts of 2 or fewer earned runs. The Angels counter with rookie Walbert Ureña, who's been a quiet revelation since sliding into the rotation. He punched out 6 over 5 innings against Texas his last time out and is sitting on a 2.58 ERA in his debut MLB season.
The form lines tell the whole story of why this game is interesting. The Angels at 22-35 look like a team you'd flip past, except they've won 4 of their last 5, just dropped 10 on the Tigers, and finally have a starter pitching with some confidence. The Rays at 34-19 still have the best record in this matchup by a country mile, but they got outscored 26-10 across the Baltimore sweep and looked nothing like the team that ran out to the AL East lead.
The injury column is where this gets ugly for Tampa. The Rays are missing Jake Fraley, Jonny DeLuca and Gavin Lux in the outfield, plus Ryan Pepiot is done for the year after hip surgery. Add in day-to-day stuff with Taylor Walls (hamstring) and Griffin Jax (back contusion) and the depth chart is genuinely thinned out. The Angels aren't exactly whole either — Nolan Schanuel hit the IL with ankle tendinitis this week and Travis d'Arnaud still has no return timetable.
- 10-Day-ILNolan Schanuel 1B — An MRI on Schanuel's left ankle revealed tendinitis, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILYoan Moncada 3B — Moncada isn't in the lineup for Thursday's game against the Athletics, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTravis d'Arnaud C — D'Arnaud (foot) told reporters Saturday that he does not have a timetable for his return from the 10-day injured list, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILBen Joyce RP — Manager Kurt Suzuki said Tuesday that Joyce (shoulder) has resumed his throwing program in Arizona, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILYusei Kikuchi SP — Kikuchi (shoulder) said Wednesday that he's slated to begin a throwing program soon and expressed hope that he'll be able to return to the Angels early in the second half of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRobert Stephenson RP — The Angels announced that Stephenson underwent ligament and flexor repair surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is likely to miss the remainder of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILAnthony Rendon 3B — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
- Day-To-DayTaylor Walls SS — Walls (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for Wednesday's game in Baltimore.
- Day-To-DayGriffin Jax RP — Jax was diagnosed with a back contusion following his removal from Tuesday's game against Baltimore, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- 10-Day-ILJonny DeLuca RF — DeLuca is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks after an MRI revealed a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
- 10-Day-ILBen Williamson 2B — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Williamson is not in the lineup for Monday's game versus the Orioles due to back tightness, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
The bet here, if there is one, comes down to whether you trust the Martinez run to keep going or whether you think a Rays lineup that just scored 10 runs over 3 games can wake up at home. Ureña has earned the start, but he hasn't seen an opposing pitcher on this kind of heater all year. The under at 7.5 (-124) is the number doing the most work — two pitchers with ERAs starting with a 1 and a 2, banged-up lineups on both sides, and a ballpark that doesn't reward homer-or-bust at-bats.