Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.13) vs. Bryce Elder (4-3, 2.50) is the kind of pitching matchup that should keep this one tight, even if the records on either side suggest a mismatch. Gausman's last time out was vintage stingy-Kevin: 5 innings, 1 earned, 5 punchouts in a 2-1 win over Miami. Elder's last outing was the opposite — Boston tagged him for 6 runs on 9 hits in 3.1 innings at Fenway, his first real clunker of the year.
Atlanta is 40-20 and sitting on a 9-game cushion in the NL East. They were the first team in baseball to 40 wins and they've spent most of May steamrolling people. The Reds did finally drop them on Sunday to snap a mini-run, but losing 1 of 5 is still cruising. Toronto, meanwhile, just got punched in the mouth by Baltimore — a 9-5 loss to close out the weekend — and the Jays are back under .500 at 29-31.
The injury sheet on the Toronto side is genuinely brutal. Jose Berrios is gone for the year after Tommy John, Bowden Francis is on the 60-day, Dylan Cease is rehabbing a hamstring, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber are both still working through rehab starts. Alejandro Kirk is out until further notice with the thumb, Anthony Santander is shelved, and now Jesus Sanchez left Sunday's game with a wrist contusion. That's most of a pitching staff and a chunk of the lineup.
- Day-To-DayJesus Sanchez RF — The Blue Jays announced that Sanchez was removed in the bottom of the sixth inning of Sunday's 9-5 loss to the Orioles due to a right wrist contusion.
- Day-To-DayGeovanny Jesus Planchart C — no
- Day-To-DayChay Yeager RP — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- Day-To-DayCJ Stubbs C — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
- Day-To-DayJaven Coleman P — no
- 10-Day-ILAddison Barger RF — Barger (elbow) has been hitting in the batting cage at Toronto's complex in Dunedin, Florida, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
- 10-Day-ILLenyn Sosa 2B — Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory.
- 15-Day-ILMax Scherzer SP — Scherzer (forearm/ankle) struck out four and allowed no hits and two walks over three scoreless innings in his first rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Buffalo.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Waldrep (elbow) allowed no hits and walked two batters over two scoreless innings during a rehab start Monday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
Atlanta isn't fully healthy either — Sean Murphy is looking at 8 weeks with the finger, Drake Baldwin is on the IL with the oblique, and Jurickson Profar is gone for the full season on the PED suspension. But when your record is 40-20 with all that, you're doing something right. The Braves rotation is the engine, and even with Elder coming off the worst start of his year, getting him at home against a banged-up Jays lineup is the spot to bet on a bounce-back.
Pinnacle has Atlanta at -127 with the total set at 7.5. Nothing wild there — the market sees it the same way most people do. Braves are the better team, they're at home, and they've got a starter with a sub-3 ERA. Toronto's path is Gausman keeping it 2-2 in the 6th and hoping the bullpen holds water. Possible, but you're picking the harder lane.