The Blue Jays and Padres both looked like October teams in April. Now they're limping toward the deadline with matching losing streaks and a lot of explaining to do.
Bush’s Picks
TORSD
TORSD
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Best BetPadres
San Diego's the better record of the two limping clubs, and home field matters when neither team has named a starter to lean on. Toronto's offense has been historically bad the last two months, and until Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shows signs of life, backing the Blue Jays to win outright is a leap of faith. The Padres are barely a favorite here, but barely still counts.
Blue Jays
+Buyers expected at deadline, still believe in roster
+Lineup has more recognizable everyday bats
+Reigning AL pennant-winner pedigree
−Just 1 win in last 5 games
−Vlad Jr. posting worst stretch of his career
−Rotation gutted: Scherzer, Berrios, Francis, Ponce all out
Padres
+Better season record than Toronto (44-46)
+Home field at Petco Park
+Tatis Jr. has found some power back in June
−Riding a rough 4-of-5 skid, including 0-8 shutout
−Machado hitting .169, Merrill down 81 points
−Rotation also down: Musgrove, Darvish, Pivetta, Waldron
Neither club has named a starter for Friday's opener yet, which tracks for two rotations that have been gutted by injury all year. Toronto is still waiting on Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis to come back healthy, while San Diego is patching things together without Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta. Whoever gets the ball for either side Friday is doing it with a thin margin for error behind them.
The lineups are where this series really gets interesting, and not in a good way for either fanbase. Manny Machado is hitting .169 and Jackson Merrill has dropped 81 points off his rookie-year average, while across the diamond Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just posted the weakest full month of his career. That's three max-earner-caliber bats all ice cold at the same time, which is part of why the market hasn't set a hard number on this one yet.
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TOR Blue Jays
SD Padres
Both front offices are reportedly leaning toward buying at the deadline anyway, which says more about a wide-open Wild Card picture than it does about how either team is actually playing right now. That's the backdrop for this series: two teams that still believe in themselves on paper, even as the product on the field says otherwise.
Toronto Blue Jays
Jul 8?@ Giants—
Jul 7?@ Giants—
San Diego Padres
Jul 9?vs Diamondbacks—
Jul 8?vs Diamondbacks—
Jul 7?vs Diamondbacks—
Recent form.
Toronto's stretch has been brutal — 1 win in its last 5, including a 0-11 and a 1-10 blowout loss sandwiched around a shutout win. San Diego isn't much better off, having dropped 4 of its last 5, capped by an 0-8 shutout loss to Arizona right before this series. Whichever team snaps its funk first probably wins this one.
The Padres at least have the benefit of Petco Park and a slightly better record, but their offense is arguably in worse shape than Toronto's — Fernando Tatis Jr. only recently found his power again after a homerless stretch that ran until the end of May. Springer, Bichette and the rest of the Toronto order will need to be the ones to break serve here.
Toronto Blue Jays
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
San Diego Padres
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is a series for fans who like their baseball ugly and unresolved — two flawed rosters trying to figure out who they are with less than a month before the deadline forces their hand.
