Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

Sun Jul 12 · 1:10 PM PT
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 12h ago·2 min read
Toronto Blue JaysTOR
San Diego PadresSD
AT
1:10 PM PT

Two teams hovering around .500 meet in San Diego, but only one of them just got its ace pitcher back healthy.

Bush’s Picks
TORSD
TORSD
OverUnder
Best BetPadres

The Padres have the healthier roster top to bottom and just got a big lift with Marquez back and dealing in his return start. Toronto's without a named starter and still hasn't solved its Guerrero Jr. problem at the plate, which makes San Diego the safer side to back outright even with Machado banged up.

Blue Jays
  • Won last 2 games by a combined 19-3
  • Cease no-hit Giants into 9th, leads AL in Ks
  • 44-49, well off the pace
  • Guerrero Jr. having worst offensive year of career
  • Rotation missing Scherzer, Berrios, Ponce, Francis
Padres
  • Won 3 of last 5, including a 10-4 blowout
  • Marquez back from IL and dominant in return start
  • Machado day-to-day after foot injury
  • Bullpen missing Adam, Estrada, Waldron
  • Marquez's overall season ERA sits at 5.02

Toronto climbs out of the desert on a 2-game heater, having just outscored the Giants 19-3 over the final two games of that series after dropping three straight to Seattle and San Francisco to open the trip. San Diego, meanwhile, enters having won 3 of its last 5, capped by a 10-4 rout of Arizona on Wednesday. Neither club is running away with anything in a stacked NL/AL playoff picture, which makes this Sunday matinee, first pitch at 1:10 PM PT, feel more like a measuring-stick game than a statement one.

German Marquez gets the ball for San Diego off the back of arguably his best start of the season: 5 shutout innings against Arizona on July 7, just 3 walks and 4 strikeouts, but zero runs allowed in his return from the injured list. Toronto hasn't named a starter yet, which tracks for a rotation that's been gutted all year — Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios, Cody Ponce and Bowden Francis are all on the shelf, and Scherzer's rehab outing with Buffalo this week (5 earned runs allowed) wasn't exactly reassuring.

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TOR Blue Jays
SD Padres

The lineups tell a similar story of teams missing pieces. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing through back tightness and having, by a wide margin, the worst offensive season of his career — a .693 OPS a year into his 14-year extension. Manny Machado is day-to-day for the Padres after fouling a ball off his foot, though X-rays came back clean. Both teams are shorthanded, but San Diego's absences skew more toward the bullpen than the middle of the order.

What's actually working for Toronto right now is its pitching depth outside the rotation gaps — Dylan Cease no-hit San Francisco into the ninth inning last Wednesday, a reminder the Jays still have frontline stuff even while the win-loss record says otherwise. The offense also woke up in a hurry against the Giants, with a grand slam from Kazuma Okamoto keying that 10-run outburst. Whether that carries over to Petco Park, a notoriously tough hitter's environment, is the real question.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Jul 11?@ Padres
Jul 10?@ Padres
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Jul 11?vs Blue Jays
Jul 10?vs Blue Jays
Recent form.

San Diego's version of good health is relative. Randy Vasquez, Freddy Fermin and Samad Taylor are all out, and the bullpen has taken the bigger hit — Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Matt Waldron are all working their way back from injury, which puts more pressure on whoever's left to hold late leads. Still, the Padres have been the better team at home lately, and getting Marquez back and effective changes the math on a rotation that's already absorbed the loss of Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Yu Darvish for the year.

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.

Add it up and this reads like a coin-flip series game between two clubs still trying to figure out who they are in the second half. Toronto's found some life at the plate the last two games; San Diego's found a little stability on the mound. Sunday in San Diego should settle at least one round of that argument.

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