Atlanta's held the NL East all summer even with half its rotation on the shelf. St. Louis is riding a wild card spot and just put a 17-run beatdown on the Cubs — this series opener has some juice.
Bush’s Picks
ATLSTL
ATLSTL
OverUnder
Best BetBraves
Atlanta's still the better overall club at 52-37 and leading the NL East, even with the rotation held together by tape. St. Louis has flashed serious upside with that 17-run outburst, but the Cardinals are 47-41 for a reason and their bullpen just took two more hits. Backing the Braves outright is the safer read until Atlanta actually shows it can't cover for its pitching losses.
Braves
+Leads NL East at 52-37 despite chaos
+Acuna progressing, taking BP again
+Found wins even with rotation gutted
−Perez, Strider, Schwellenbach all on IL
−Kim out, White on paternity leave
−Dropped 3 of last 5 vs Mets, Cardinals
Cardinals
+Sit in a wild card spot at 47-41
+Offense exploded for 17 runs on Cubs July 3
+Won last meeting with Braves 11-5
−Bruihl and Rajcic both hit bullpen IL
−Lost last 2 games in one-run fashion
−Four games back of division-leading Atlanta
Neither club has an official arm confirmed for Friday's opener as of this writing, so the probable pitchers listed above are the ones to watch as the matchup firms up. Atlanta's been forced to piece together a rotation all year, while St. Louis has leaned on its bullpen to close out close ones — how each side fills the mound Friday says a lot about where both teams stand entering the weekend.
The bigger story for Atlanta is who's NOT available. Martin Perez just landed on the 15-day IL with a forearm contusion, joining Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60-day list, which means the Braves are still patching together a rotation on the fly. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been taking batting practice and progressing on his hamstring, but Atlanta isn't expected to rush him back before the break. Ha-Seong Kim is out with a finger injury and Eli White is away on paternity leave, so the lineup card looks different than the one that built this division lead.
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ATL Braves
STL Cardinals
St. Louis has its own bullpen headaches — Justin Bruihl left Monday's game against Milwaukee with a sprained ankle, and Max Rajcic just went down with an elbow issue — but the offense has been doing the heavy lifting lately. That 17-1 demolition of the Cubs on July 3 wasn't a fluke of one big inning; the Cardinals strung together six straight scoring frames and got a franchise-record night with runners in scoring position. Book value on this series is close, and it should be.
Atlanta Braves
Jul 9?@ Pirates—
Jul 8?@ Pirates—
Jul 7?@ Pirates—
St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 9?vs Brewers—
Jul 8?vs Brewers—
Jul 7?vs Brewers—
Jul 7?vs Brewers—
Recent form.
Atlanta's last five have been a mixed bag — a blowout loss to this same Cardinals team, a couple of wins over the Mets, then a pair of one-run-margin defeats to close out that series. It's the profile of a team that's still the class of its division on the strength of what it built in the first half, not necessarily what it's doing right now. St. Louis, meanwhile, has won 3 of its last 5, including that Cubs blowout, before dropping back-to-back one-run games to Chicago and Milwaukee.
Atlanta Braves
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
St. Louis Cardinals
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
The injury pictures on both sides make this less about names on paper and more about who's actually available Friday night at Busch Stadium. Atlanta's margin for error keeps shrinking every time another arm or bat lands on the IL, while St. Louis is trying to hang onto a wild card spot with a bullpen that's now down two relievers. Whoever's healthier when it matters probably wins this series, regardless of which name is atop the standings.
