Atlanta's still holding down first place in the NL East, but St. Louis just snapped a four-game skid and wants to steal the finale before the Braves get out of town.
Bush’s Picks
ATLSTL
ATLSTL
OverUnder
Best BetBraves
Atlanta's the better roster from top to bottom even with the rotation banged up, and that gap is hard to erase in one game. Waldrep's ugly last outing is the obvious hole in the case, but the Braves have enough offense to cover for a shaky start. Lean Atlanta here, with the understanding that the pitching matchup makes it closer than the records suggest.
Braves
+NL East leaders at 53-38
+Deep lineup even without Acuña Jr.
+Took series finale in Pittsburgh, 3-0
−Rotation gutted — Strider, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver all out
−Lost 3 of last 5, including a 4-12 blowout
−Waldrep carries an 8.44 ERA back in the rotation
Cardinals
+May struck out 7 over 4.2 scoreless innings last start
+Snapped a 4-game skid with a 5-1 win over Milwaukee
+May's ankle trending in the right direction
−48-43, still scrapping for a wild-card spot
−Lost 4 of 5 before Tuesday's win
−May capped near a limited pitch count, taxing the pen
Sunday's pitching matchup is a study in contrasts. Hurston Waldrep (0-1, 8.44) is barely back in the rotation after time away, and his last outing was ugly — 7 earned runs in just 3.1 innings against Pittsburgh. Dustin May (5-6, 4.55) is trending the opposite direction, coming off a start where he struck out 7 over 4.2 shutout innings without issuing a walk. First pitch is 1:15 PM CT.
The bigger story for Atlanta might be who isn't walking through the clubhouse door. The rotation has been gutted — Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver are all on the 60-day IL, and Martin Perez just joined the 15-day list with a forearm contusion. That's part of why a arm like Waldrep, still finding his footing, is being leaned on right now. Ronald Acuña Jr. remains out with a hamstring strain, though Atlanta's hopeful he starts a rehab assignment soon.
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1:15 PM CT
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ATL Braves
STL Cardinals
St. Louis has its own attrition to manage. May himself is still working back from an ankle contusion after getting hit by a comebacker earlier this month, which is part of why his pitch counts have been kept on a leash the last couple outings. The bullpen behind him has had to pick up the slack, and how deep the Cardinals can stretch it Sunday will matter as much as anything May does himself.
Atlanta Braves
Jul 11?@ Cardinals—
Jul 10?@ Cardinals—
St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 11?vs Braves—
Jul 10?vs Braves—
Recent form.
Atlanta's still the better team on paper — a 53-38 record and the NL East lead speak for themselves — but the last week has been shaky, with 3 losses in the last 5 including a 4-12 blowout loss to the Pirates. St. Louis, at 48-43, is scrapping to stay relevant in the wild-card mix and just snapped its own funk with a 5-1 win over Milwaukee. Neither club is playing its best baseball right now, which makes Sunday feel more like a coin flip than the standings alone would suggest.
Atlanta Braves
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
St. Louis Cardinals
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Whichever bullpen holds up better late is probably going to decide this one. Atlanta's lineup, even without Acuña, has more thump up and down the order, but Waldrep's control problems — 5 walks in his last start — give St. Louis free baserunners to work with. If May's pitch count forces manager Oliver Marmol into his relief corps early, that's the matchup that could flip this game.
