Atlanta and Boston split the first two of this series in violent fashion — a 7-6 Braves win Tuesday, then an 8-0 Red Sox haymaker on Wednesday — and now they hand the ball to two of the more interesting starters in the sport. Chris Sale (7-3, 1.89) takes on Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.45) with the Braves laid -1.5 and the total stuck between books at 7.5/8.5.
Sale just got named NL Pitcher of the Month for May after a 5-0, 0.56 ERA run, and his last time out he carved Miami for 7 innings of 1-run, 8-K, zero-walk baseball on 96 pitches. He's the NL ERA leader. Tolle, the rookie lefty, has been doing his own thing — 9 K in 6 innings of his last start against the Twins, and earlier this year he opened his season by punching out 11 Yankees and the first 5 hitters he faced at Fenway. The 97 mph fastball plays.
The form lines tell two very different stories. Atlanta is 37-19 and Boston is 23-31, but the Braves have dropped 3 of 5 and the Sox just hung a shutout on them less than 24 hours ago. Momentum in a series game is mostly noise, but if you're looking for a reason to fade the favorite, "they just got no-hit on the scoreboard last night" is at least an honest one.
The injury list is where this gets ugly for both sides. Atlanta is without Sean Murphy (finger, 8+ weeks), Drake Baldwin (oblique), Kyle Farmer, and Jurickson Profar for the full season on a PED suspension — that's the entire catcher room and a corner-outfield bat gone. Boston is missing Trevor Story (sports hernia, 6-10 weeks), Roman Anthony, Triston Casas, and rotation pieces in Garrett Crochet, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, and Johan Oviedo. Tolle is in this rotation because half the staff isn't.
- Day-To-DayBlake Burkhalter RP — Triple-A Gwinnett placed Burkhalter on the 7-day injured list March 27 with back spasms, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
- 10-Day-ILDrake Baldwin C — Baldwin (oblique) doesn't yet have a timeline for his return, MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Farmer DH — Farmer went 1-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBI in Sunday's rout of the Guardians.
- 10-Day-ILSean Murphy C — Manager Walk Weiss said Tuesday that Murphy (finger) is expected to be sidelined at least eight weeks, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- suspensionJurickson Profar LF — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILSpencer Schwellenbach SP — Schwellenbach (elbow) has begun throwing on flat ground, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
- 60-Day-ILAJ Smith-Shawver SP — Manager Walt Weiss said Friday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) has been throwing bullpen sessions, and the next step in his rehab is to face live hitters, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
- 60-Day-ILHurston Waldrep SP — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said May 13 that Waldrep (elbow) has felt fine since he began throwing bullpen sessions earlier in the month, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayGarrett Whitlock RP — The Red Sox reinstated Whitlock (personal) from the paternity leave list Monday.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Anthony (finger) took 12-to-15 dry swings without any discomfort Tuesday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Crochet (shoulder) said that he's scheduled to throw a second live batting practice session Sunday, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILPatrick Sandoval SP — Sandoval (biceps/elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRomy Gonzalez 1B — Gonzalez (shoulder) has started hitting flips, MLB.com reports.
The market reads it the way you'd expect: Pinnacle has the Braves -139 on the moneyline, Red Sox +126, and the under -135 at 7.5. Two aces, two short-handed lineups, getaway-day matinee — there's a clean case for the under even with the books split on the number. If you trust the Sale-of-May more than the line does, the -1.5 at +125 is the bet that's been getting the sharp handle.