The Cubs were up half a game on the Brewers when this series started. They are now staring at a sweep watch. Milwaukee blew the doors off Shota Imanaga and the Cubs 9-3 on Monday, dropping Chicago to a 1-4 mark over its last 5 and a fresh half-game back of the Brew Crew in the division.
On the mound it gets uglier for Cubs fans on paper. Kyle Harrison has been the steal of the offseason — the lefty Milwaukee pried from Boston is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA through 8 starts, including a 12-strikeout, 1-hit gem against the Pirates. Edward Cabrera has been Chicago's most consistent starter, but at 3-1 with a 4.06 he is giving up more than a run for every inning Harrison surrenders.
The injury list is doing the Cubs no favors. Justin Steele is out until after the All-Star break, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd are still cooked, and the bullpen has lost Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, Shelby Miller and Riley Martin to the IL. If Cabrera doesn't go deep, Craig Counsell is fishing in a thin pond.
- Day-To-DayGerson Garabito RP — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 10-Day-ILBrandon Lockridge LF — Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILQuinn Priester SP — Priester (shoulder) departed High-A Wisconsin on Tuesday to join Triple-A Nashville for his next rehab start Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrandon Woodruff SP — Woodruff (shoulder) is tentatively scheduled to face hitters Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILJared Koenig RP — Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 15-Day-ILAngel Zerpa RP — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- 60-Day-ILAkil Baddoo LF — Baddoo (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILRob Zastryzny RP — Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayBrandon Birdsell RP — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayJeff Brigham RP — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJaxon Wiggins SP — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Wiggins was placed on Triple-A Iowa's 7-day injured list Wednesday due to right elbow inflammation, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
- 15-Day-ILMatthew Boyd SP — Boyd (knee) is scheduled to throw off a mound Saturday and is on track for a full bullpen session next week, Tony Andracki of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 15-Day-ILRiley Martin RP — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 60-Day-ILHunter Harvey RP — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
- 60-Day-ILJustin Steele SP — Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Steele's (elbow) setback will keep him sidelined until after the All-Star break, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
- 60-Day-ILPorter Hodge RP — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
The market sees the gap. Pinnacle has Milwaukee at -163 on the runline and the Cubs as +101 home dogs on the moneyline — at Wrigley, against a team that's been outscored badly the last week. DraftKings ticket counts have 64% of bets on the Cubs runline and 54% on the over, but the sharper handle is leaning the other way. Every market here grades out negative EV, so this is a watch-and-yell game, not a hammer game.
What to actually look for: can the Cubs put a ball in play against Harrison's new breaker? He's holding hitters to a .229 average and the league is still figuring out the slider he reworked in spring. If Chicago can scratch out 3 early and get into Milwaukee's middle relief, this game flips. If not, the Brewers leave the North Side in first place and the calls for Jed Hoyer to do something get a lot louder.