Zack Littell (1-4, 7.24) is doing his best impression of a batting tee. He's surrendered an MLB-high 11 home runs through his first 5 starts and got rocked by Heliot Ramos and the Brewers in his last outing — 3 runs in 5 innings on the box score, but the underlying tape is uglier than that. Miami's lineup isn't exactly Murderers' Row, but you don't need to be when the opposing starter keeps grooving fastballs.
Janson Junk is the polar opposite story. The righty posted a 2.83 ERA in April capped by 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers — yes, that Dodgers — outdueling Ohtani in the process. He's not blowing anyone away with stuff, but he's been efficient, kept the ball in the yard, and given Miami exactly the kind of length their bullpen desperately needs right now.
The market reflects all of that. Miami sits at -151 as a sizable home favorite, the run line is Marlins -1.5 (-152), and the total is parked at 8.5. The handle splits are interesting though — 88% of the spread money is on Miami while only 47% of bets are, meaning sharper accounts are laying the runs. Every market here grades out slightly negative-EV at Pinnacle's fair price, so this is not a screaming bet — it's a fade-Littell game where the public has already done the math.
- Day-To-DayLuis Garcia Jr. (1B) — Garcia (wrist) is out of the lineup for Friday's game against the Marlins, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum (DH) — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.05/08
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora (SP) — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana (RP) — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILClayton Beeter (RP) — Beeter (forearm) has been cleared to resume throwing off the mound, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILCole Henry (RP) — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILMax Kranick (RP) — The Nationals signed Kranick (elbow) to a one-year, $800,000 contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list.05/08
- OutTyler Stuart (SP) — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams (SP) — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz (SP) — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILJosiah Gray (SP) — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.05/08
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk (RP) — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine (LF) — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.05/08
- 15-Day-ILPete Fairbanks (RP) — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said that Fairbanks (hand) threw a "very encouraging" 13-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Jeremy Tache of Marlins.tv reports.05/08
- OutJesus Tinoco (RP) — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.05/08
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez (RP) — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.05/08
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur (SP) — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.05/08
Washington will play this one without Luis Garcia Jr., who's out of the lineup with a wrist issue, and the Nats rotation depth chart still reads like a hospital ward — Williams, Herz, Gray, and Stuart (post-Tommy John) all unavailable. Miami's bullpen is similarly thinned with Pete Fairbanks still working back from a hand injury, which puts a premium on Junk eating innings.
Bottom line: if Littell solves his long-ball problem for one afternoon, the Nats have the bats to steal this one as a plus-money dog. If he doesn't, this gets out of hand fast and Miami coasts behind their best starter. Hard to see much in between.