The Rays are 32-15. They lead the AL East, they got to 30 wins faster than any other AL team, and their rotation has been carrying the load with the best collective starter ERA in baseball. The Orioles? They've dropped 4 of their last 5 and are about to hand the ball to a guy posting a 5.26 ERA against the hottest team in the league. Not ideal.
Shane Baz is the headliner here, and not in a good way. Baltimore traded a haul to Tampa Bay to get him and then signed him to a 5-year, $62 million extension before he threw a single regular-season pitch in orange. Through 51.1 innings he's walked the ballpark, with 3+ free passes in 3 straight starts and a 1.52 WHIP that tells you everything about why his ERA looks like it does. The xFIP says it should come down. The scoreboard hasn't gotten the memo.
On the other side, Steven Matz is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA and the Rays are 6-1 in his starts. He went 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Yankees and followed it up with 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Giants. The lefty was briefly dealing with elbow inflammation earlier this month, so the Trop crowd will be watching the radar gun, but when he's right he's been exactly the steady veteran Tampa needed in a rotation that's already lost Ryan Pepiot for the year.
The market is pricing this exactly like you'd expect — Rays -120, run line -1.5 at +164, total of 8.5. The DK split shows 79% of moneyline handle is on Tampa, and the EV numbers come back negative across the board, which is sportsbook-speak for 'you are not finding a value play here.' If anything sticks out, it's the under pulling 38% of bets despite only 12% of handle, meaning a few large tickets are pounding the over.
Then there's the injury situation, which is genuinely brutal for Baltimore. Westburg had Tommy John. Eflin had Tommy John. Mountcastle isn't back until late June at the earliest. Kremer, Helsley, Povich, Bautista, Kjerstad — all on the shelf. The Rays have their own problems (Pepiot done for the year, Fraley needing hernia surgery, Yandy Diaz out of the lineup again with a hand issue), but the depth gap between these two rosters is real and it shows up in the standings.
- Day-To-DayLevi Wells P
- Day-To-DayRichard Guasch SP — no
- Day-To-DayWill Robertson LF — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeagan Gillies P — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayLuis Vazquez SS — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILDylan Beavers RF — Beavers (oblique) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees.
- 15-Day-ILCade Povich SP — Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
- 15-Day-ILRyan Helsley RP — Helsley (elbow) played catch Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
- Day-To-DayYandy Diaz DH — Diaz (hand) is not in the lineup for Wednesday's contest versus the Orioles.
- Day-To-DayAustin Vernon RP — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
- Day-To-DayLogan Driscoll C — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
- Day-To-DayKeyshawn Askew RP — no
- Day-To-DayTre' Morgan 1B — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
- Day-To-DayAlfredo Zarraga RP — no
- Day-To-DayTJ Nichols P — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
- 10-Day-ILBen Williamson 2B — Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Williamson is not in the lineup for Monday's game versus the Orioles due to back tightness, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
A 12:10 PM first pitch at the Trop against a first-place team starting a lefty who's been dealing — this is the kind of getaway-day spot where the Orioles either steal one because nobody expects them to, or get rolled in 2.5 hours and head to the airport. Recent history suggests the latter.