The Phillies roll into the series finale at loanDepot park Monday afternoon at 14-20, which is ugly, but they've quietly won four of their last five and are coming off a 7-2 beating of the Marlins on Sunday where Bryson Stott crushed a three-run homer in a six-run first. Now they hand the ball to Aaron Nola and hope the version that shows up isn't the one that's been showing up most of April.
Nola's 6.03 ERA isn't a small-sample fluke at this point — it's basically a continuation of how he finished last year. His last outing was 4 2/3 innings of six-run baseball against the Braves, the second straight start he didn't make it through five. Don Mattingly's interim staff has to be sweating every fastball that doesn't get to its spot, because the bullpen is already shorthanded.
Across the diamond, Janson Junk has been the best thing about Miami's rotation. A 3.00 ERA through six starts, including six shutout innings against the Dodgers on April 28. He's not going to blow anyone away — 5.73 K/9 — but he pounds the zone and lets the Marlins play behind him, which is exactly the kind of pitcher who can frustrate a Phillies offense that's still finding consistency outside of Stott and Schwarber.
The market basically calls this a coin flip. Pinnacle has it Phillies -109 / Marlins -102 with a total of 8.5, while DK is selling Philadelphia at -143 — that's the kind of price that screams "the public sees the records and the bullpen edge and ignores the ERAs on the mound." The EV line agrees: every side is shaded negative. No free money here.
- Day-To-DayKeaton Anthony 1B — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- Day-To-DayRene Pinto C — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
- Day-To-DayChristian McGowan RP — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- suspensionJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
- 15-Day-ILKyle Backhus RP — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
- 10-Day-ILGriffin Conine LF — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILPete Fairbanks RP — Marlins manager Clayton McCullough said that Fairbanks (hand) threw a "very encouraging" 13-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Jeremy Tache of Marlins.tv reports.
- 60-Day-ILRonny Henriquez RP — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
- 60-Day-ILAdam Mazur SP — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
- OutJesus Tinoco RP — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
The injury picture matters too. Jhoan Duran (oblique) might not even need a rehab assignment before he's back, which would be a real shot in the arm for a Philly bullpen that's been patched together. Miami, meanwhile, is still without closer Pete Fairbanks after that nerve issue knocked him out late last month, and Owen Caissie was out of the lineup Sunday with an illness. Late innings could get interesting either way.
Bottom line: Phillies have the better roster on paper, the worse starter on the mound, and the chance to leave Miami with a series win that papers over a rough month. If Nola gives them five clean, this is theirs. If he doesn't, the Marlins are perfectly built to make them pay.