Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

Wed Jul 8 · 7:10 PM ET
By Pablo SanchezUpdated 9h ago·2 min read
Philadelphia PhilliesPHI
Cincinnati RedsCIN
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7:10 PM ET

The Phillies just got embarrassed 15-1 by the worst team in the American League. Now they've got to go find themselves against a Reds rookie who's pitching like an All-Star.

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PHICIN
PHICIN
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Best BetPhillies

Backing the Phillies here means betting on talent over trend — this is still a 50-41 club that was in first place for long stretches before its recent slide, and Burns has to be beaten by somebody eventually. Cincinnati's lineup outside Stewart hasn't given anyone much reason for fear, and Philadelphia's floor is higher even on a bad week.

Phillies
  • Still just 2 games back in NL East
  • Mattingly turnaround has shown real upside
  • Deeper roster than Cincinnati overall
  • Lost 4 of last 5, including 1-15 blowout
  • Ace Sanchez just got shelled for 9 ER
  • Down Garcia and Rojas for the season
Reds
  • Chase Burns is a genuine All-Star arm
  • Sal Stewart mashing, ROY-caliber rookie year
  • Took 2 of 3 from Baltimore last series
  • 41-48, well back in NL Central race
  • Rotation gutted, Williamson and Ashcraft both out
  • Bullpen thin with Santillan on the shelf

Cincinnati hands the ball to Chase Burns on Wednesday, and that's about the last thing a slumping Phillies lineup wants to see. Philadelphia hasn't announced its starter for this one, but whoever it is inherits a rotation that just watched its ace get shelled — Cristopher Sanchez was tagged for 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings in that July 6 loss to Kansas City, the kind of outing that lingers.

Burns is a 2024 first-round pick who struck out his first five career batters, an Expansion Era record, and he's carried that hype into a 10-1, 2.40 ERA season that just earned him an All-Star nod. His last time out, 6 innings, 2 earned runs against Milwaukee, was the kind of clean, efficient start that's become his norm. For a Reds team scuffling at 41-48, he's the one sure thing they can point to every fifth day.

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PHI Phillies
CIN Reds

This is game 2 of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park, and both clubs arrive banged up in different ways. The Phillies are without Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas for the rest of the season — Garcia had season-ending surgery on a torn lat, and Rojas is out following elbow surgery — while the Reds are without half their rotation depth with Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft both on the 60-day IL.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.

Philadelphia's slide is the bigger story right now. The Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 5, capped by that 1-15 disaster in Kansas City, and it's a rough gut check for a team that's still just 2 games back of Atlanta in the NL East. Interim manager Don Mattingly turned this club around after a 9-19 start under Rob Thomson, but a stretch like this is exactly the kind of thing that can unravel momentum in a hurry.

Cincinnati isn't exactly rolling either, but there's more going right lately. The Reds took 2 of 3 from Baltimore over the weekend, and rookie third baseman Sal Stewart has been raking all year, hitting for the kind of power and average that's got him in the Rookie of the Year conversation alongside Burns. Terry Francona has been publicly unbothered by the outside noise around a team that's fallen off the pace in the NL Central, and a night with his best arm on the mound is as good a spot as any to build on that.

Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 7?@ Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 7?vs Phillies
Recent form.

Both teams have flashed contender upside this year and both have looked lost for stretches, too. Wednesday's not a must-win in July, but for a Phillies club trying to keep pace in a tight division and a Reds team trying to prove its record undersells them, it's a real measuring-stick night.

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