The Phillies are rolling under a new manager and the Reds are staring down a fire sale — this series finale in Cincinnati is about as lopsided as the standings suggest.
Bush’s Picks
-156PHICIN+141
+101PHI -1.5CIN +1.5-113
-103Over 9.5Under 9.5-111
Best BetPhillies -156
Luzardo's been running a sub-2 ERA over his last five starts and just made his first All-Star team — that's the safest bet on the board tonight. Singer's exit velocity and whiff numbers have both cratered to career-worst marks, and Cincinnati's offense hasn't given him much margin for error. Backing the Phillies here is about as straightforward as moneyline reads get this season.
Phillies
+38-18 since Mattingly took over as manager
+Luzardo an All-Star, dominant last five starts
+Deep lineup even without Rojas, Garcia
−Rojas, Garcia both out for the season
−Bullpen still integrating Keller off IL
Reds
+Rookies Lowder, Petty giving bullpen a lift
+Arroyo holding his own since callup
+Won series opener's rubber match before slipping
−Last place in NL Central, 10.5 back
−Singer's exit velocity, whiff rate career-worst
−Bullpen down three arms (Ashcraft, Williamson, Santillan)
First pitch is 7:10 PM ET, and the pitching matchup does the Reds no favors. Jesús Luzardo, an All-Star for the first time in his career, has been nearly unhittable for weeks. Brady Singer is trying to climb out of the worst stretch of his career, and the Statcast numbers say it's not bad luck.
Philadelphia's bullpen is getting healthier at the right time. Brad Keller is back from a forearm issue and expected to slide right back into the 8th-inning mix, even with Orion Kerkering pitching well enough to keep some of that work for himself. Cincinnati doesn't have that luxury — Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Tony Santillan are all out, and manager Terry Francona has been candid about how thin that's left his relief corps down the stretch.
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PHI Phillies
CIN Reds
None of it is shocking given where these two clubs sit. The Phillies are chasing the Braves in the NL East and holding a wild-card spot after a 38-18 tear under Don Mattingly. The Reds are in last place in the NL Central, about 10.5 games back, and could be sellers by the August 3 deadline. Francona has called team meetings and admitted to losing sleep over the slide — this isn't a team hiding from its problems.
Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 8?@ Reds—
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 8?vs Phillies—
Recent form.
Philadelphia already took the series opener 4-1 on July 7, and there's not much in Cincinnati's recent play to suggest Thursday looks different. The bright spots for the Reds are real but small-sample: rookie arms Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty have flashed, and shortstop prospect Edwin Arroyo has held his own since getting the call. That's a bet on the future, not on tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Cincinnati Reds
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Both rosters are banged up in ways that matter. Philadelphia is still without Johan Rojas and Adolis Garcia for the season, which has thinned out the outfield picture even as the offense keeps producing. Cincinnati's absences read more like a team running out of healthy bodies at the wrong time, and it shows in a bullpen that's been forced to piece things together on the fly.
