Ashcraft takes the ball at 6:40 PM ET with a 7-3 record and 3.07 ERA through 16 starts, and his last outing was a statement: 10 strikeouts, 0 walks, 1 run in 6 innings against Seattle, making him the first Pirates pitcher since at least 1901 to throw multiple 10-K, walk-free games in a single season — putting him alongside Paul Skenes, Gerrit Cole, and Bob Veale in Pittsburgh record books. Nola (3-4, 5.58 ERA) counters for the Phillies on the other side of this matchup, carrying a season-long ERA that tells one story while his recent work tries to argue another.
Nola's real news heading in is that he has gone 3 straight starts without issuing a walk, the fourth time in his career he has strung that together. He has leaned harder on breaking balls after his fastball location fell apart through April and May, and his ERA has dropped from a peak of 6.04. The command is genuinely better. The homer rate is the remaining problem. A near-even moneyline — Pirates -108, Phillies -102 — reflects a market that sees this as a tight game regardless of what the names on the lineup cards say.
Pittsburgh arrives at 42-42 and shorthanded. Both Oneil Cruz (hand) and Spencer Horwitz (hamstring) are on the IL with no return expected until after the All-Star break — GM Ben Cherington confirmed that Sunday. Losing Cruz in the outfield and Horwitz at first base is a real lineup hole, particularly on the road against a Phillies club that has played some of its best baseball of the season in June. The Pirates can survive the absences when Ashcraft is locking up hitters for 7 innings, but there is limited margin for error if he runs into trouble early.
- Day-To-DayJared Jones SP — no
- Day-To-DayAnthony Solometo SP — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
- Day-To-DayMitch Jebb LF
- Day-To-DayOddanier Mosqueda RP — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMike Clevinger RP — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DaySean Sullivan SP — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILSpencer Horwitz 1B — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- 10-Day-ILOneil Cruz CF — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
- Day-To-DayLiover Peguero SS — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
- Day-To-DayAndrew Bechtold 3B — no
- Day-To-DayAndrew Walling RP
- Day-To-DayCarson DeMartini SS
- Day-To-DayDaniel Robert RP — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DayMark Kolozsvary C — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
- 15-Day-ILBrad Keller RP — Keller (forearm) has progressed to playing catch, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILJohan Rojas CF — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Philadelphia at 47-37 has gone 12-6 in June and cut what was a 10.5-game NL East deficit down to 6.5. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh anchor an offense that has heated up with the summer, and the Phillies come home after winning 4 of 5 on the road — including taking 2 of 3 from the Mets in New York. Citizens Bank Park, a lineup built around legitimate power, and a Nola who has at least rediscovered his command makes this a trickier road spot for Pittsburgh than the 42-42 record would suggest.