The Rockies show up in Phoenix at 20-33 and dragging a 1-4 last-5 behind them. The starting staff has been the headliner of the dumpster fire — Colorado starters posted a 7.53 ERA in May while going 2-10, with Kyle Freeland (13.15 May ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (9.20) doing most of the damage. Jose Quintana has been the one stabilizer, and he's the guy on the bump today.
Quintana actually deserves better than his 2-2, 4.08 line. He's been the rotation's lone bright spot in May, posting a 2.00 ERA over 27 innings with 21 strikeouts. If the Rockies are going to steal anything in this series, it's behind him. The other 4 days a week the rotation is essentially batting practice.
Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson, whose 1-3, 5.19 ERA reads ugly but is trending the right way. He came into May with a 7.71 ERA and has cleaned it up over his last two starts — 2 earned runs across 12.1 innings with 11 punchouts. Against a Colorado lineup missing Kris Bryant, Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, and Jordan Beck, that trend should keep going.
- Day-To-DayWilli Castro 2B — Castro is out of the lineup against Texas on Wednesday
- Day-To-DayBrayan Castillo RP — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
- Day-To-DayCase Williams SP — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayJared Thomas CF — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILMickey Moniak LF — Moniak is not in the starting lineup Thursday night against Arizona.
- 10-Day-ILBrenton Doyle CF — The Rockies announced that Doyle is considered day-to-day after suffering a left oblique contusion during Tuesday's 10-0 loss to the Rangers, Manny Randhawa of MLB.com reports.
- 10-Day-ILJordan Beck LF — Beck went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI on Saturday against Atlanta.
- 15-Day-ILChase Dollander SP — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayDerek Law RP — no
- Day-To-DaySpencer Giesting SP
- Day-To-DayKyle Amendt RP — Amendt was invited to major-league spring training by the Diamondbacks, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
- 10-Day-ILLourdes Gurriel Jr. LF — Gurriel's hamstring injury is believed to be fairly minor, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday the hope is Gurriel will be able to return from the injured list when first eligible.
- 10-Day-ILJames McCann C — Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that McCann (quad) will likely be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 10-Day-ILCarlos Santana 1B — Santana suffered a setback with his right adductor strain Sunday while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
- 60-Day-ILA.J. Puk RP — Puk (elbow) threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session Tuesday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILCorbin Burnes SP — Burnes (elbow) is expected to begin throwing live batting practice Friday, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports.
The Diamondbacks are 27-24 and have won 4 of their last 5, even with their own pile of bodies on the IL — Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and James McCann all unavailable. That McCann timeline (4-to-6 weeks with a quad) is the one that stings for the catching depth, but it hasn't slowed the offense down.
The market knows the deal. Arizona is -187 with a 0.4253 EV on the moneyline, and the DK split is 84% handle, 87% bets on the home side — public and sharp money pointing the same direction is usually a flag, but at Chase Field against the worst rotation in baseball, you can see why nobody's fading it. The total sits at 9 or 9.5 depending on the book, and the over has been getting hammered for tickets (53%) without quite as much money (69% handle), which is closer to a real split.
The path for Colorado is straightforward: Quintana goes 6 quality innings, the bullpen doesn't completely melt, and they hope to slug into one of those Chase Field shootouts. The path for Arizona is even simpler — just be the Diamondbacks playing the 2026 Rockies. That usually works out fine.