Mitch Spence (0-0, 13.50) draws Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 3.70) in the opener of a 3-game set at Nationals Park. Spence has been built up as a starter since Kansas City grabbed him from the A's in spring, but the early returns are what they are — 4 innings, 6 earned, and a number that screams 'use your bullpen early.' Alvarez countered his last time out with 4 innings of 2-run ball against the Giants on 90 pitches, walking 5. Neither guy is exactly Tarik Skubal.
The Royals are running on fumes. They dropped 4 of 5 on the homestand before Sunday's 4-0 shutout of Houston, and the injury list has turned the lineup card into a roster move. Vinnie Pasquantino had hamate surgery and is out 4-to-6 weeks, Kyle Isbel has a Grade 3 plantar fascia tear, and the rotation is missing Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, and Seth Lugo (concussion list). That's how you end up handing the ball to Spence in mid-June.
- Day-To-DayAnthony Simonelli SP — no
- Day-To-DayJavier Vaz 2B — Vaz (fingers) has produced a .238/.304/.262 slash line with zero home runs and three stolen bases in 10 games since being activated from Double-A Northwest Arkansas' 7-day injured list April 22.
- Day-To-DayTyson Guerrero RP — no
- 7-Day ILSeth Lugo SP — The Royals placed Lugo on the 7-day concussion list Friday.
- 10-Day-ILVinnie Pasquantino 1B — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said that Pasquantino underwent surgery Sunday to remove a fractured hamate bone in his right hand and will face a recovery timeline of roughly 4-to-6 weeks, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.
- 10-Day-ILKyle Isbel CF — Isbel has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 tear of a portion of his left plantar fasciitis.
- 15-Day-ILKris Bubic SP — Royals manager Matt Quatraro said Sunday that Bubic underwent another MRI that showed nothing structurally wrong with his left elbow or shoulder, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Ragans SP — Ragans (elbow) had a throwing session cut short Friday and will undergo additional testing, Jaylon T. Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports.
- Day-To-DayJarlin Susana RP — Susana (lat strain) threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
- Day-To-DayTyler Stuart SP — no
- Day-To-DayTyler Baum DH — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
- Day-To-DayTravis Sykora SP — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
- 15-Day-ILJake Irvin SP — Nationals manager Blake Butera said Monday that Irvin (shoulder) remains shut down from throwing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILDJ Herz SP — Herz (elbow) struck out four batters over three scoreless innings in his second rehab start Thursday in the rookie-level Florida Complex League.
- 60-Day-ILKen Waldichuk RP — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTrevor Williams SP — Williams (elbow) threw a simulated game at Nationals Park ahead of Tuesday's loss to the Marlins, MLB.com reports.
Washington is the surprise here. The Nationals are 37-35, just took 2 of 3 from Seattle including a 10-1 beatdown on Sunday, and have quietly played themselves into 'wait, are they real?' territory. They're favored at -142 on the moneyline and laying -1.5, which feels about right for a team at home against a Royals club starting an opener-by-emergency.
The wild card is Alvarez's command. 5 walks in 4 innings against San Francisco is the kind of line that turns into a 6-run inning if the Royals can keep Bobby Witt Jr. moving on the bases. Kansas City's offense isn't scary without Pasquantino in the middle of it, but Witt is still Witt, and even a depleted lineup will take free passes if Alvarez hands them out again.
Vibes say Nationals. The pitching edge is real, the home crowd will be juiced after the Seattle series, and the Royals are stitched together with athletic tape. But this is also a total that could go either way — two pitchers without a put-away pitch usually equals traffic.