The Cubs are trying to hold their grip on a playoff spot with a battered pitching staff, and the Twins arrive at Wrigley looking to prove last week's mini-surge wasn't a fluke.
Bush’s Picks
MINCHC
MINCHC
OverUnder
Best BetCubs
The Cubs are the deeper, more dangerous lineup right now, and that's before accounting for Minnesota playing without Byron Buxton. Chicago's won 6 of its last 10 and is fighting for playoff positioning, while the Twins are still hovering around .500 with a rotation that's been decimated by injuries. Back the home team here.
Twins
+Won 3 of last 5, including a series win over Angels
+Buxton still put up 25 HR before hip injury
−Byron Buxton out on 10-day IL with hip strain
−Rotation gutted: Lopez, Festa, Abel, Prielipp, Sands, Raya, Acton, Banda all hurt
Cubs
+Pete Crow-Armstrong on an MVP-caliber tear since June 1
+Holding top NL Wild Card spot, 6-4 in last 10
−5.0 games back in NL Central
−Still without Steele, Taillon and Cabrera in rotation
Neither club has a starter locked in for Saturday's game yet, which tracks for two rotations that have taken a beating in 2026. The Twins have lost Pablo Lopez, David Festa, Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp, Cole Sands, Marco Raya, Garrett Acton and Anthony Banda to various injured-list stints this season, an absurd toll for one staff. The Cubs aren't unscathed either, still missing Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera as they piece together a rotation on the fly.
Whoever takes the ball, the lineups are where this one gets decided. Minnesota is without Byron Buxton, who's on the 10-day IL with a hip strain after a 25-homer first half that had him in All-Star conversation — that's a real hole in the middle of their order and their outfield defense. Chicago, meanwhile, has been riding Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's been the best player in baseball since June 1, and Seiya Suzuki, who's pushed his OPS north of .900. That gap in top-end firepower is a big reason the Cubs are favored here even with their own rotation questions.
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MIN Twins
CHC Cubs
Both teams are trending the same direction on paper — 3-2 in their last five — but the context is different. The Cubs are 6-4 over their last 10 and sitting on the top NL Wild Card spot, five games back in the Central. The Twins are just trying to climb back to .500 and stay relevant in a muddled AL Central race. That gap in stakes shows up in how each team is likely to be built out down the stretch.
Minnesota Twins
Jul 17?@ Cubs—
Chicago Cubs
Jul 17?vs Twins—
Recent form.
Minnesota's front office has been cagey about its deadline plans — buy or sell hinges on stringing together wins like the three-of-four stretch they just had against the Angels. A series win at Wrigley would be exactly the kind of statement that nudges them toward buying. For the Cubs, every game right now is about staying ahead of a crowded Wild Card field, and a home date against a sub-.500 AL club is the type of game a contender needs to bank.
Minnesota Twins
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Chicago Cubs
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Crow-Armstrong's power-speed combo and Suzuki's resurgence give the Cubs a lineup that can win games even when the rotation is shaky, which matters given who's currently unavailable to start. The Twins need production out of whoever replaces Buxton in center and don't have the same top-of-the-order thump to fall back on. That disparity is the real story of this series, regardless of who ends up on the mound Saturday afternoon.
