Minnesota is 24-27 and just stole one in Boston, rallying for an 8-6 win on Friday on the back of Byron Buxton and Austin Martin homers off Justin Slaten in the 7th. The follow-up is a get-back spot for the Red Sox, who are 22-28, sitting on a rotation that's been raided by the IL, and being run by interim manager Chad Tracy after Alex Cora was fired April 25.
The pitching line on paper is generous to the Twins. Taj Bradley (4-1, 2.87) is back from the pectoral IL and slotting straight into the rotation after one Triple-A St. Paul tune-up and a bullpen earlier this week. Boston counters with reliever Jovani Morán (0-1, 2.81) as the opener, with Brayan Bello expected to handle the bulk innings. That is the kind of matchup edge that does not show up in a moneyline.
It is also why the market is barely committing. Pinnacle has the Red Sox at -113 with a fair win probability right around a coin flip, while DraftKings is dragging the home price out to -156. The DK splits tell you where the public is — 77% of bets on Boston at home — but the line moves and EV markers are not buying the lean.
The injury picture is the actual story of this game. Boston is down Trevor Story for 6-to-10 weeks after sports hernia surgery, Roman Anthony's sprained finger has him stuck on the shelf, and Garrett Crochet is still working back through bullpens. Minnesota is no healthier — Ryan Jeffers needs 6-to-8 weeks after hamate surgery, Pablo López is on the 60-day, and Walker Jenkins is still chasing a return.
- Day-To-DayWalker Jenkins CF — Twins manager Jeremy Zoll said Saturday that Jenkins (shoulder) is "reporting improvements daily" and could begin light baseball activity in about a week, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayCory Lewis SP — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayJulian Merryweather RP — Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports.
- Day-To-DayMatt Canterino SP — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
- 10-Day-ILRyan Jeffers C — Jeffers needs surgery to remove a fractured left hamate bone and is expected to be sidelined 6-to-8 weeks, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports.
- paternityTristan Gray 3B — Gray will start at third base and bat seventh in Wednesday's game against the Astros.
- 15-Day-ILTaj Bradley SP — Bradley (pectoral) could rejoin the Twins' rotation as soon as Saturday in Boston, Matthew Leach of MLB.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILCole Sands RP — Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said that Sands (forearm) played catch on consecutive days last week and is expected to spend about a month on the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
- Day-To-DayHobie Harris RP — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
- 10-Day-ILTrevor Story SS — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-to-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
- 10-Day-ILRoman Anthony LF — Red Sox president Sam Kennedy clarified Friday on WEEI 93.7 FM that Anthony is dealing with a sprained ligament on the base of his right ring finger, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILGarrett Crochet SP — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Friday that Crochet (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session this weekend and live batting practice early next week, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
- 15-Day-ILDanny Coulombe RP — Coulombe (neck) allowed one run and recorded two outs for Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
- 60-Day-ILKutter Crawford SP — no
- 60-Day-ILTanner Houck SP — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
- 60-Day-ILTriston Casas 1B — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
If Bradley looks anything like the guy who carried a sub-3 ERA into the IL, this is a Twins game to grab. Boston's bullpen-game blueprint can work, but it asks a lot from a staff that just gave up a 4-run inning the night before. Fenway in a Saturday afternoon shadow game with two patchwork lineups — the under at 7 has a real case, even if the price tag isn't a gift.