The Yankees have blown a division lead and can't stop losing. The Nationals just took two of three from Houston and get their guy back off suspension for the finale.
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NYYWSH
NYYWSH
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Best BetNationals
The Yankees still have the better season-long resume at 50-42, but that record is badly out of date — this is a team that's lost 11 of its last 13 games with its two best power hitters out of the lineup. Washington just took a series from Houston and gets a fresh arm in Cavalli. Backing the home side here is a bet on which team is actually playing well right now, not which team has the better name on the jersey.
Yankees
+Better overall season record at 50-42
+Deeper roster and rotation depth once healthy
−Lost 11 of last 13 games, offense in freefall
−Judge (ribs) and Stanton (calf) both out indefinitely
Nationals
+Took series from Houston, Wood/Abrams swinging hot bats
+Cavalli returns from suspension for the finale
−Rotation gutted — Irvin, Williams, Herz, Gray all hurt
−Bullpen thin with Lovelady, Parker, Waldichuk out
Cade Cavalli takes the ball for Washington in the first-half finale after serving a suspension stemming from a dugout-clearing fracas in Boston, and he draws a Yankees lineup that's forgotten how to hit. Will Warren gets the ball for New York for Sunday's 1:35 PM ET matinee at Nationals Park, and he's been trending the wrong way for weeks.
New York hasn't been the same since Aaron Judge went down. The captain is dealing with a stress fracture in his rib and won't be reevaluated until the All-Star break, meaning this lineup has been without its best hitter for over a month with no firm return date. Giancarlo Stanton isn't walking through that door either — he's still not running on his surgically-managed calf. Warren, meanwhile, has a 5.34 ERA over his last 11 starts and hasn't finished six innings since May.
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NYY Yankees
WSH Nationals
Washington's rotation has been gutted too — Jake Irvin, Trevor Williams, DJ Herz and Josiah Gray are all on the shelf — but the lineup has been doing the heavy lifting. James Wood hit a grand slam in a wild 12-11 win over Houston last week, and CJ Abrams has been swinging it well. That kind of offense against a Yankees pitching staff already missing Carlos Rodon, Max Fried and Clarke Schmidt is a real problem for New York.
Check the recent form below and it's not close — New York's the team playing scared right now, Washington's the team playing loose.
New York Yankees
Jul 11?@ Nationals—
Jul 10?@ Nationals—
Washington Nationals
Jul 11?vs Yankees—
Jul 10?vs Yankees—
Recent form.
The injury list on both sides is ugly, but the way it's hitting each roster matters. New York is without its two middle-of-the-order bats in Judge and Stanton, which drains the lineup of thump. Washington's losses are almost entirely arms, which stings the rotation and bullpen depth but hasn't stopped this offense from putting crooked numbers on the board three straight games.
New York Yankees
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Washington Nationals
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
None of this means Washington is a juggernaut — the Nationals are still hovering around .500 and burning through bullpen arms with Richard Lovelady, Mitchell Parker and Ken Waldichuk all out. But with Cavalli fresh off the IL clock and getting a crack at a Yankees team that's lost 11 of its last 13, the vibes clearly favor the home side on Sunday.
