This was supposed to be over Friday night. Instead, Barrett buried a 29-footer in OT to tie the series 3-3, and a Cavs team that's 3-0 at home in this postseason is suddenly 48 minutes from a first-round exit they did not see coming.
The injury math is the whole story for Toronto. Brandon Ingram is out with the heel issue, Immanuel Quickley is done for the series with a hamstring, and Chucky Hepburn hasn't been available since the regular-season finale. That's a starting forward and the primary backcourt creator gone, which means another heavy night of usage for Scottie Barnes and Barrett — who, to be fair, hasn't exactly shrunk in this series.
- OutBrandon Ingram F — Ingram underwent successful surgery Friday to address ongoing heel pain, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
- OutImmanuel Quickley G — Quickley (hamstring) is out for the remainder of Toronto's first-round series against Cleveland, per NBA reporter Marc Stein.
- OutChucky Hepburn G — Hepburn (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's regular-season finale against Brooklyn, Esfandiar Baraheni of The Athletic reports.
- Day-To-DaySam Merrill G — Merrill (hamstring) is questionable for Saturday's Game 3 against the Pistons.
Cleveland's path is the obvious one: get Donovan Mitchell rolling. He went 2-for-10 from three in Game 6 and had a clean look rim out late in regulation. At home in this series he's been a different player — 27 a night on 51.7% shooting per the projections floating around — and the Cavs are 6-2 all-time in Game 7s, 4-0 at Rocket Arena. The history is brutal for Toronto, which has never won a road Game 7 in the Barnes era.
The number tells you what the market thinks of a depleted road team in a Game 7 at a fortress: Cavs -8.5, with Cleveland's moneyline implying roughly a 74% chance to advance. The total at 209.5 is interesting — Game 6 went to OT and barely cleared 220, and these teams have largely played in the 105-115 range when it's been ugly and tight. Public money is on the over and the Raptors plus the points; sharp pricing has both sides at the same -105 juice on the spread, which usually means the book likes its number.
Best guess: Cleveland wins, but 8.5 is a lot to lay on a team that just blew a closeout at home. If Mitchell hits a couple early threes the Raptors don't have the perimeter defenders to slow this down without Quickley. If he doesn't, Toronto hangs around and we're sweating a backdoor cover into the final minute. Either way, the series that the Cavs were supposed to put away in five gets one last 48 minutes.