Two teams that combined to lose 21 games last season kick off fresh starts in the desert, and somebody has to win this one.
Bush’s PicksPicks madeJul 7, 1:03 PM CT
+162MIALV-185
-110MIA +3.5LV -3.5-103
-108Over 40.5Under 40.5-108
Best BetRaiders -185
The Raiders are the shorter price here, but Cousins' continuity with Kubiak from their Minnesota years is real, and Miami is trusting an unproven Willis in a brand-new system with a coach who's already flagged rapport issues with his receivers. Vegas at home is the safer moneyline lean even coming off the league's worst record.
Dolphins
+Willis already familiar with Hafley, GM from Green Bay
+Achane a home-run threat if healthy Week 1
−Hafley: Willis-receiver rapport still 'work in progress'
−Went 7-10 last year, O-line depth questions at tackle
Raiders
+Cousins-Kubiak have 3 years of history in Minnesota
+Jeanty set for expanded, McCaffrey-style workload
−Coming off a league-worst 3-14 season
−O-line ranked 22nd in run-block win rate last year
This is about as clean a reset as the NFL offers. Miami fired Mike McDaniel, moved on from Tua Tagovailoa, and handed the offense to Jeff Hafley and free-agent signee Malik Willis. Las Vegas, fresh off a 3-14 finish that got Pete Carroll and Geno Smith shown the door, brought in Klint Kubiak and 4-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins to try to salvage the Ashton Jeanty era before it stalls out. Kickoff is set for 1:25 PM PT on Sunday, September 13, and neither fan base has a clue what they're getting yet.
Willis has the edge of being the first quarterback on the field with Hafley and GM Jon-Eric Sullivan, his old Green Bay ties intact, but Hafley himself admitted in June that building chemistry with this new-look receiver room is still 'a work in progress.' Cousins, meanwhile, gets to run it back with Kubiak after three years together in Minnesota, which buys him goodwill even on a rebuilding roster that just cycled through its third head coach in as many years.
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MIA Dolphins
LV Raiders
The name to watch on either side is a running back. De'Von Achane was limited to individual reps in June while nursing a shoulder issue from a Week 17 procedure, and even a hint of him going less than 100% changes Miami's math. Jeanty, on the other hand, is walking into a offense that's explicitly built to feed him — Kubiak has compared his workload plans to Christian McCaffrey's usage in Seattle, and if Jeanty's snap count climbs the way Kubiak wants, that alone could be the deciding factor in a game between two rosters still figuring out who they are.
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
Recent form.
Vegas' offensive line was 22nd in run-block win rate a year ago, but the returns of Kolton Miller at left tackle and Jackson Powers-Johnson at guard give this group a shot at actually clearing lanes for Jeanty. Miami's got its own O-line questions with Austin Jackson working back from a toe issue, and if either front wins that battle up front, it probably decides who's 1-0 walking out of Allegiant Stadium.
Neither team has proven anything yet, and that's the whole appeal here. New coach, new quarterback, same low bar — whichever side clears it first gets to feel good about a rebuild for at least a week.
