Game 1 was right there. Carolina took Vegas the distance, traded haymakers, and then watched Hertl bury his 4th of the postseason with 3:24 left to lose it 5-4. The market has moved with the result but not all the way: Pinnacle has the Canes back as a -155 home favorite with the total sitting at 5.5, which tells you oddsmakers still think Carolina is the better team — they just didn't play like it in the moments that mattered.
The goalie story is what frames this whole series. Frederik Andersen came into the Final at 12-1 with a 1.41 GAA and a .931 save percentage, having allowed 2 or fewer goals in 12 of his 13 playoff starts. Then he gave up 5. That's not a Andersen problem so much as a Carolina-in-front-of-Andersen problem, and it's the fix that has to happen in Game 2 or this thing gets ugly fast.
Before the loss, the Canes had ripped 4 straight — including a 4-0 shutout and a 6-1 demolition of Montreal to close out the conference final. So the offense is there and the structure is there. What changes in Game 2 is the response to giving up a late one at home, which is the kind of thing that either fuels a bounce-back or lingers.
Vegas is missing Reilly Smith, Brandon Saad, and Jeremy Lauzon among others and still came in here and won a track meet. That's the part that should worry Carolina more than the scoreboard — the Knights didn't need their A-lineup to take Game 1, and Carter Hart has been every bit Andersen's equal in net through the playoffs. If the Canes don't get a cleaner 60 minutes Thursday night, going to Vegas down 0-2 is a hole that ends seasons.