Every July the MLB Draft produces a handful of players who fall further than their talent says they should, usually because of one word: college. Jensen Hirschkorn, a 6-foot-7 prep arm out of Kingsburg, California, was one of those guys. He was committed to LSU, a powerhouse program that scares off plenty of teams from spending real money on a kid who could just as easily go pitch in Baton Rouge for 3 years. The Braves picked him anyway in the 3rd round, at pick 84, and then did something almost nobody does at that draft slot: they paid him like a top-10 pick.
Jim Callis broke down the numbers on the deal, including how far it blew past slot value.
The slot value for pick 84 was $973,700. The Braves gave Hirschkorn roughly $4 million, according to Callis's reporting, nearly $3 million over slot. That's not just a big overpay, it's the largest bonus ever given to a player selected after the 2nd round in draft history, surpassing the $3.7 million the Rangers gave Brock Porter back in 2020 to buy him away from a Clemson commitment. Bonus pool math means the Braves had to strip money from other picks to cover it, a bet that this one player was worth more than a normal, balanced draft class.
The scouting profile explains why Atlanta was willing to break the bank. Hirschkorn has a fastball that's touched the mid-90s, a promising low-80s slider and feel for a changeup, all packed into a projectable 6-foot-7 frame that scouts love to dream on. He was reportedly one of the more talked-about arms to emerge from the high school showcase circuit, the kind of upside pick that either becomes a front-of-rotation starter or a cautionary tale, with not much middle ground.
Turning down LSU is no small thing either. The Tigers have been one of the sport's top programs for years, and passing on a scholarship there for a signing bonus means Hirschkorn is betting entirely on himself and the Braves' player development staff instead of 3 years of college ball and another shot at the draft down the line. Atlanta clearly views him as too good to let get away, treating a 3rd-round slot like a formality and the price tag like a 1st-round investment.
Whether the record bonus looks smart in 5 years depends entirely on player development now, but the size of the check says everything about how the industry is valuing high-upside prep arms these days. Teams are increasingly willing to gut a draft's bonus pool for one guy they believe can outproduce his slot by a wide margin, and the Braves just made the loudest bet yet.