The 2026 World Cup semifinal bracket is finally official, and it's about as loaded as it gets. France and Spain kick things off Tuesday in Dallas, then England and Argentina meet Wednesday at Atlanta Stadium in a rematch nobody's seen at the World Cup level since 2002. Both quarterfinal wins that got us here came the hard way -- England needed extra time to beat Norway behind a Jude Bellingham winner, and Argentina needed extra time of their own to get past Switzerland. Nothing about this final four has been easy.
The Wake Up Barstool crew put up the all-time World Cup scoring list, with Harry Kane sitting at 14 goals, right as they broke down the England-Argentina matchup.
Kane's presence on that all-time board matters here -- he's the guy England needs to be aggressive if they want to finally get past Argentina on the biggest stage. The broadcast graphic had England as -135 favorites and Argentina at +105, tight enough odds for a matchup that's carrying six prior World Cup meetings worth of history into Wednesday's 3pm ET kickoff on Fox.
On the other side of the bracket, the Wake Up crew's real fascination is with France. The odds board has Les Bleus at +150 to win it all, clearly the best number of the four semifinalists, with England (+340), Spain (+320) and Argentina (+360) bunched up behind them. That gap is what got Dave Portnoy going.
Dave Portnoy laid out why France's championship odds have him thinking dynasty, not just favorite.
Portnoy's comparison was straightforward: France, in his eyes, is playing on a different level than the other three semifinalists, the way an undefeated Michigan team separated itself from the rest of college football during its national title run. It's a big swing of a comparison for a team that still has to get through Spain and then a final to actually win anything -- but the odds board backs up the sentiment, at least for now.
That same France-Michigan bit got recycled a few minutes later, this time with a punchline about cheating attached, playing off the old Michigan sign-stealing scandal that still gets brought up any time the Wolverines' title run comes up in sports-debate circles.
The crew ran back the France-Michigan comparison, this time with a joking dig about whether France is "cheating" too.
It's a bit, not an accusation -- nobody's actually suggesting France is stealing signs at the World Cup. But it captures the vibe on set right now: four legitimate contenders left, and the hosts already treating France like the team to beat. Tuesday and Wednesday will tell us if that read holds up, or if England-Argentina and the always-dangerous Spain end up crashing the party Portnoy's already planned for Les Bleus.