Every draft has a player teams look back on 3 years later and go 'how did he fall to the third round.' The Mets are betting Aidan Robbins is that guy. According to Jim Callis, New York signed the outfielder for $1 million after taking him with pick No. 92 overall, well above the assigned slot value of $859,900.
Jim Callis broke the signing and the numbers behind Robbins' breakout season.
The bonus overslot isn't just a nice gesture from the Mets front office, it's a reflection of how fast Robbins' stock shot up. Before this spring he was known as a contact hitter who could really get on base, leading the Big East in batting and doing the same in the Cape Cod League. That's a solid player. It's not a $1 million-over-slot player.
Then he transferred to Texas and everything changed. Robbins went from a guy with modest pop to a legitimate power threat, hitting 24 home runs this season, tied for third-most in a single season in Longhorns history, alongside leading the team in hits, RBI, total bases and slugging percentage. That's a jump from whatever his previous career high was to 24 in one year, the kind of swing-decision change that makes scouts sit up.
The production wasn't empty stats in a hitter-friendly conference either. Robbins helped push Texas to another College World Series appearance and picked up All-America honors from multiple outlets along the way, plus Most Outstanding Player of the Austin Regional. When a guy that productive lasts until the third round, it's usually because teams are unsure which version shows up in pro ball, the contact-first hitter or the new-look slugger.
For the Mets, paying over slot to lock him up now is a signal they believe the power is real and sustainable, not a one-year fluke against college pitching. Robbins joins a farm system that's been retooling, and outfield bats with legitimate over-the-fence pop don't grow on trees in every draft class.
Now it's just about developing the tools. If the swing-and-miss stays manageable as he moves through the minors, the Mets could end up with one of the better values from this entire draft crop for a fraction of what top-of-the-first-round bats cost.