Phillies Bullpen Crunch Forces a Buy-or-Build Decision

By Vinnie the Gooch·2 min read
Phillies Bullpen Crunch Forces a Buy-or-Build Decision

A torn UCL blew a hole in Philadelphia's bridge to the ninth, and now the Phillies have to decide whether the fix comes from a trade or their own farm.

The Phillies didn't need a reason to shop for bullpen arms before the deadline, but they got a brutal one anyway. Brad Keller, who was supposed to be the primary bridge to closer Jhoan Duran, tore the UCL in his right elbow, and that injury instantly moved relief pitching from a want to a need.

MLB Trade Rumors laid out the state of the Phillies' bullpen search, including the internal names in the mix.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Rumors: Bullpen, Wood, McFarlane https://t.co/xhGzt3dB1I https://t.co/cav9eI22HK
via @mlbtraderumors

Duran has been about as good as it gets at the back end, sitting with a 1.38 ERA, and Orion Kerkering has held up fine as a setup piece at 2.43. Everything in between has been a mess. Jose Alvarado's ERA sits at 6.82, and Philadelphia has otherwise been mixing and matching just to get outs from the 6th through the 8th. That's not a formula that survives a pennant race.

So the front office is doing what front offices do in mid-July: calling around. But there's a wrinkle here that makes this trickier than just writing a check. Baseball America ranked the Phillies' farm system 29th in the sport in its midseason update, which limits what Philadelphia can actually offer in a deal for a rental reliever or a controllable arm.

MLB Trade Rumors floated the idea that the Phillies' own farm system could be part of the answer instead of a straight trade.

MLB Trade Rumors: The #Phillies are looking to trade for relief pitching, but could some bullpen help come from their own farm system?
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via @mlbtraderumors

That's why the internal names matter. Alex Wood is a call-up option who could slot straight into the big league bullpen, and prospect Alex McFarlane has posted a 2.12 ERA with a strikeout rate over 32% at Double-A, numbers that have him trending toward a Triple-A promotion soon. Neither is a sure thing, but with a thin system to trade from, homegrown help suddenly looks a lot more appealing.

There's also a bigger chip in play. MLB.com has floated the idea that Philadelphia could listen on first-round arm Gage Wood, a 22-year-old already up to Double-A with a 3.44 ERA and a strikeout rate near 35%, if a genuinely impactful reliever becomes available. That's the kind of move the Phillies made a year ago to land Duran himself, and it tells you how seriously ownership is treating this problem.

None of this is cosmetic for bettors either. Every blown lead in the 7th or 8th this season has traced back to the same shaky middle innings, and that's exactly the kind of leverage spot that moves late-game lines. Whatever Philadelphia does between now and the August 3 deadline, whether it's a trade for a proven arm or trusting Wood and McFarlane to answer the call, will decide how many of those close games actually stay close.

Philadelphia PhilliesMLB Trade Deadline