Strip away the context and the raw numbers from Jeanty's rookie year already looked like an every-down back: 975 yards on 266 carries, 5 rushing scores, plus 55 catches for 346 yards and 5 more touchdowns through the air, good for 1,321 scrimmage yards that broke Josh Jacobs' franchise rookie record. He did that while playing from behind most Sundays behind an offensive line that cycled through six different starting combinations.
Draft Market
The efficiency data explains why nobody panicked. Jeanty averaged just 1.26 yards before contact per carry, one of the worst marks by a starting back in 15 years, yet still ranked 8th in the league in yards after contact per rush and tied for 4th-most forced missed tackles among all backs. That's a back creating on his own with nothing blocked for him, which is exactly the profile that tends to spike the moment the blocking gets even a little better.
The Raiders spent the offseason trying to fix precisely that problem, handing a record-setting deal to Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum and adding Texas A&M tackle Trey Zuhn in the draft. New play-caller Klint Kubiak has been blunt about wanting Jeanty's workload to look like Christian McCaffrey's, snaps and targets included, after Jeanty already played 77.5% of Las Vegas's offensive snaps as a rookie. Vegas did draft a change-of-pace back in the fourth round, but Kubiak's own comments made clear the touches belong to Jeanty unless something goes wrong.
Award Markets
That's the fantasy case in a sentence: a workhorse role, a real receiving floor already established at 73 targets last year, and touchdown equity that should only grow behind better blocking. Nothing about the ADP here is a surprise premium for name value, it's a bet on positive touchdown and yardage regression from a genuinely bad situation.
The market mostly agrees but hedges the ceiling. Sitting at RB4 with just a 12.5% shot at the RB1 crown and only a 2.5% shot at the rushing yards title feels light given the target volume he's already shown and the fact Kubiak is explicitly building the passing-down role around him too. The rushing touchdown market at 17.5% looks closer to fair, since goal-line work in Las Vegas will still get split around Bowers and the passing attack. If the offensive line improvement is even half real, Jeanty's per-touch numbers alone should push him into true top-3 back conversation, and the current ADP of 12 to 13 undersells that.
RB Board
Draft him at cost late in round 1, and don't feel bad reaching into the back half of round 1 if your league is stacking backs early. This isn't a name-brand tax pick, it's a bet on a guy who was already productive with nothing blocked for him finally getting some room to work.
