ATL to win+134
TLDR: San Francisco plays a 10 AM body-clock kickoff 6 days after Monday night, with no Evans, no Bosa, a shaky kicker in open-roof wind and a short front 7 facing Bijan Robinson.
Point
- Travel and rest
San Francisco flies 3 time zones east after a Monday night game, so 1 PM ET kickoff lands at 10 AM on 6 days' rest.
- Receivers
Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are out, and Christian Kirk was only activated off IR Saturday, so Purdy's receivers have barely practiced together.
- Front 7
Bosa, Wallow and Gifford are all out against Bijan Robinson, who leads the NFL with 758 scrimmage yards.
- Weather
The roof is open with sun near 70, but gusts up to 25 mph test Eddy Pineiro, whose 6 missed kicks lead the league.
Counterpoint
- Raheem Morris
The 49ers coordinator coached Atlanta for 2 years and helped draft Penix, so he knows exactly where Atlanta's quarterback breaks.
- Pressure
San Francisco has 4 or more sacks in back-to-back games without Bosa, and Penix completes just 31% of his throws under pressure.
Neutral
- Last meeting
The 49ers won 20-10 in Santa Clara a year ago, but Atlanta has since changed head coaches, so it tells us little.
- The bye
San Francisco's bye comes next week. That could pull its focus ahead, or push a beat-up team to go all out first.