LAD to win-141
TLDR: Glasnow's October record meets a Brewers staff built from a fading rookie and arms that have not pitched this postseason, on a back-to-back that likely costs Milwaukee its busiest reliever.
Point
- Glasnow in October
Glasnow is 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA in his postseason starts for the Dodgers, the record you want on the mound in an elimination game.
- Drohan's slide
Drohan had a 3.48 ERA through July and a 5.89 ERA over the last 2 months, so Milwaukee is starting a rookie whose numbers got worse late.
- Uribe's workload
Abner Uribe has pitched in every Brewers playoff game and threw 20 pitches Wednesday, and with no off day the path to Megill gets thinner.
- Untested bulk arms
Chad Patrick and Kyle Harrison, the likely bulk behind Drohan, had not thrown a pitch this postseason before tonight's possible clincher.
Counterpoint
- Ohtani and Freeman
Ohtani is hitting .182 this October with no RBIs while playing through right biceps and left knee trouble, and Freeman has a right knee issue.
- Drohan vs lefties
Drohan held left-handed hitters to a .243 average, with 27 strikeouts and 5 walks, and Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker and Muncy all bat left.
Neutral
- Weather
Forecasts call for a sunny high near 93 in Los Angeles, and warm air helps fly balls carry for both lineups.
- The house
Game 3 drew 50,708 at Dodger Stadium, short of a sellout, so the home crowd should help in an elimination game but may not be full.