MIL to win+108
TLDR: Milwaukee sends the series' only left-handed starter at a Rays lineup that keeps striking out, against a former ace it has already beaten once this year, in a dome its own fans have half-claimed.
Point
- Road crowd
StubHub says 21% of Game 3 seats it sold went to Wisconsin ZIP codes, so the Rays' dome won't sound entirely like home.
- Peralta in July
Milwaukee hit Peralta for 7 runs in 5.1 innings on July 20, his 1st start against the club he pitched for through 2025.
- The lone lefty
Gasser is the only left-handed starter on either side this series, and he finished the season with a 1.67 ERA over his last 6 outings.
- Rays at the plate
Tampa Bay has struck out 19 times in 2 games, and Milwaukee drew 9 walks off a staff that issued MLB's fewest.
Counterpoint
- Peralta at home
Peralta has a 1.45 ERA in 7 home starts for Tampa Bay, and his October fastball has climbed to 96.9 mph.
- Gasser away
Gasser had a 4.36 ERA on the road this year against 3.40 at home, and right-handed hitters slugged .442 off him.
Neutral
- Weather
No weather — indoors at Tropicana Field.
- The building
The Rays came back to Tropicana Field in April after Hurricane Milton tore off its roof, and tonight is its 1st World Series game since 2008.