TB to win+144
TLDR: Misiorowski hasn't gone past 5 innings this October, so Game 5 likely turns on 2 worn-out bullpens, and the Rays have the fresher arms, the dome and the last at-bat.
Point
- Home split
Tampa Bay went 55-26 at Tropicana Field this season and 43-38 on the road, and a split that wide matters most in an elimination game.
- Misiorowski's ceiling
Misiorowski hasn't gone past 5 innings in any of his 3 playoff starts, so the late innings belong to a tired Milwaukee bullpen.
- Rays' rested arms
Sulser, Matz and Cleavinger didn't pitch in Game 4, so Kevin Cash has 3 rested arms for the innings after Misiorowski leaves.
- Game 1 look
The Rays struck out only 3 times against Misiorowski in Game 1, and a lineup that put the ball in play gets its 2nd look.
Counterpoint
- The Brewers' ace
Misiorowski led the majors with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a .157 opponent average, and he pitches on a full 4 days' rest.
- Jackson Chourio
Chourio already has 10 hits in 4 games, matching Babe Ruth's 1928 World Series record, and tired relievers still have to get him out.
Neutral
- Weather
No weather — indoors at Tropicana Field.
- 3 straight nights
Game 4 ran 4 hours, 20 minutes and ended after midnight, the 2nd of 3 straight nights, so both bullpens start Game 5 short.