TB to win+394
TLDR: Dallas plays on a short week after an emotional comeback, and its defense can't take the ball away or stop the run, the 2 things a close Tampa game needs.
Point
- Close games
Tampa Bay's last 10 games were all decided by one possession, the longest active run in the NFL, and a long shot needs exactly that.
- Dallas takeaways
Dallas has 4 sacks and is the only team without an interception, the gentlest draw for a rookie whose 2 picks sank him last week.
- Run defense
Dallas ranks 31st against the run and has allowed 188 rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Daniels ran for 55 on 8 carries in his debut.
- The spot
Dallas comes off a 34-30 comeback in Houston after trailing by 10 at halftime, and has 3 days to get up for an 0-4 visitor.
Counterpoint
- Secondary
Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib fracture) and Benjamin Morrison are both out, so a thinner secondary has to cover Lamb, who leads the NFL in catches and yards.
- Rookie on the road
Daniels makes his first road start and Thursday night debut on 3 days of prep, and Tampa is 2-11 all time at Dallas.
Neutral
- Conditions
The forecast is clear and about 83°F at kickoff, and AT&T Stadium's retractable roof keeps the weather out of it either way.
- Rest
Both teams play on 3 days of rest. Dallas bused home from Houston, and Tampa flies one time zone west after a home game.