LAD to win-102
TLDR: Yamamoto has been at his best away from home, Sale has never carried his regular season into October, and Atlanta's relievers are tired after 2 straight bullpen games.
Point
- Yamamoto on the road
Yamamoto posted a 1.77 ERA on the road this season against 3.13 at home, so Truist Park suits him better than Dodger Stadium.
- Sale in October
Sale came into this postseason with a 6.35 ERA in 10 career playoff appearances. His great regular seasons have never carried into October.
- Braves' long relievers
Didier Fuentes threw 3⅔ innings Sunday and Ray Kerr has opened twice in 6 days, so Atlanta's 2 longest relievers are worn down.
- Yamamoto's traffic control
Yamamoto's 0.87 WHIP was 2nd among qualified starters. Atlanta built its Game 2 runs on a 5-walk start that Yamamoto rarely allows.
Counterpoint
- The August shutout
Sale threw a 5-hit shutout at these Dodgers on Aug. 27, so this lineup has already faced his best stuff and come up empty.
- Ohtani's swing
Ohtani hasn't homered since Aug. 18 and has no extra-base hit this series. Now he faces a lefty averaging a career-high 96 mph.
Neutral
- Weather
The forecast is mostly sunny and in the mid-70s with a clear evening at open-air Truist Park, so conditions should help neither side.
- Travel
Both clubs flew east after Sunday night's Game 2 in Los Angeles and both had Monday off, so neither side has a travel edge.