LAD to win-125
TLDR: Yamamoto comes in on full rest to a mound where he has already finished a playoff game, while a rookie who rarely pitches 6 innings hands Milwaukee's bullpen another long night.
Point
- Yamamoto's rest
Yamamoto last pitched October 6, 7 innings of 1-run ball with 10 strikeouts, so he arrives fresh on 5 full days of rest.
- Last time here
Yamamoto threw a 3-hit complete game in Milwaukee in Game 2 of last year's NLCS, a 5-1 win in this exact spot.
- Henderson's length
Henderson threw 98 1/3 innings over 18 regular-season starts, about 5 1/2 per outing, so Milwaukee's bullpen should owe 3 or more innings again.
- The stopper
Yamamoto has a 1.23 ERA in 3 career playoff starts after a postseason loss, and he is unbeaten in 6 road playoff starts.
Counterpoint
- Henderson vs. LA
Henderson beat the Dodgers twice this year, allowing 1 run with 13 strikeouts in 12 innings, so this lineup has already lost to him.
- Milwaukee's pen
The Brewers' bullpen allowed 3 runs in 19 division-series innings and none on Sunday, so getting into it early may not help much.
Neutral
- Rest coming in
Both clubs clinched their division series on October 7 and had 3 days off before Game 1, so neither side has a rest edge.
- Day after night
Game 2 starts at 4 PM CT, the afternoon after a Sunday night opener, and both clubs have the same short turnaround.