CHI to win+186
TLDR: The bet won by 20. Our defense case held: Philadelphia got 7 points, 248 yards and 2-of-9 on 3rd down. The backfield case missed. Swift and Monangai ran for 115 yards, and Keenum carried the offense we said did not need him.
Point
- Last meeting
Swift and Monangai ran for 255 yards combined in Chicago's 24-15 win at Philadelphia last November, against the same Vic Fangio defense.
Didn't matterSwift and Monangai ran for 115 combined, not another 255 - Bears backfield
Swift has 169 yards and 3 TD and Monangai has 147 yards, so this offense leans on its backs more than its quarterback.
Helped usSwift had 84 yards on 20 carries, but Keenum carried the offense - Bears defense
Chicago held Minnesota without a touchdown, to 246 yards and 3-of-13 on 3rd down, the kind of game that keeps an underdog close late.
Helped usEagles held to 7 points, 248 yards, 2-of-9 on 3rd down
Counterpoint
- Quarterback
Case Keenum, 38, starts after not taking an NFL snap since 2023, and Williams' 107 rushing yards go out with his hamstring.
Helped usKeenum went 24-for-34 for 247 yards with 3 total TDs - Bears front
Linebacker Noah Sewell and lineman Shemar Turner are ruled out, which thins the front that has to stop Saquon Barkley, who has no injury designation.
Didn't matterBarkley ran for 82 yards on 15 carries, but the Eagles scored once
Neutral
- Weather
The forecast at Soldier Field is 64 degrees at kickoff with 5 mph wind and no rain, so neither offense is pushed off its plan.
Didn't matterWeather played no reported role in the game - Rest
Both teams last played Sunday, September 20, so each comes in on 8 days of rest with no short-week edge either way.
Didn't matterBoth teams had the same rest, so neither got an edge
