ATL to win+223
TLDR: The Falcons won by 21 at +223, and most of the case held: Penix was 18-of-25, Green Bay ran for 17 yards and Love went 28-of-52. The margin came from Robinson and London, who weren't in the case.
Point
- Pass rush
Micah Parsons is on the PUP list until at least mid-October, so Penix's first start back won't face Green Bay's best pass rusher.
Helped usPenix went 18-of-25 for 256 yards without Parsons across - Backfield
Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list, which leaves Green Bay without the lead back who could take pressure off its quarterback.
Helped usWithout Jacobs, Green Bay ran for 17 yards - Love's accuracy
Jordan Love is completing 52.1% of his passes, the lowest rate among quarterbacks with 30 or more attempts, and he had Reed for those games.
Helped usLove completed 28 of 52 with 1 interception - Travel and rest
Green Bay went to overtime against the Jets in its 2nd straight road game, then flew home to get ready for Thursday.
Didn't matterNo sign fatigue decided it; Green Bay was held scoreless for 2 quarters
Counterpoint
- Lambeau history
Atlanta hasn't won at Lambeau since 2008, and Green Bay is going for a record 14th straight home-opener win.
Didn't hurt usAtlanta won 35-14 at Lambeau; the home-opener streak ended - Protection
Rush and Strand were sacked 7 times in 2 games, and the same line now has to protect a quarterback coming back from ACL surgery.
Didn't hurt usThe line held up; Atlanta gained 498 yards
Neutral
- Weather
It should be dry and calm, just under 60 degrees at kickoff and falling into the 50s by the 4th quarter, so neither game plan changes.
Didn't matterWeather never came up in the game - Sidelines
Kevin Stefanski is in his 1st season with Atlanta and Matt LaFleur in his 8th in Green Bay, and they're 1-1 against each other.
Didn't matterCoaching never came into the story
