UGA to win+105
TLDR: Alabama's thin linebacker room, Nate Frazier's return and a wet night in Tuscaloosa point to the low-scoring, run-first game Georgia won 28-7 the last time these teams met.
Point
- Alabama's linebackers
Cayden Jones is out for the season, and Justin Hill and Desmond Umeozulu both miss this game, which leaves Alabama thin up front against Georgia's run game.
- Frazier is back
Nate Frazier, Georgia's leading rusher with 211 yards and 5 TD, is off the injury list and can carry the ball into that weakened front.
- Stockton's ball security
Gunner Stockton has 13 TD and 1 interception on 75.5% completions, which is the kind of care a damp night rewards.
- Last meeting
Georgia beat Alabama 28-7 in the 2025 SEC title game, and Stockton was named MVP after 3 TD and no interceptions.
Counterpoint
- Smart vs. Alabama
Kirby Smart is 2-7 against Alabama, and both wins came in the postseason, so he has never beaten the Tide in a regular-season game.
- Tuscaloosa drought
Georgia has not won at Bryant-Denny since a 26-23 overtime game in 2007, so this stadium has stopped the Bulldogs for nearly 2 decades.
Neutral
- Weather
Hurricane Isaias was due to come ashore near Mobile Bay early Saturday, and forecasts disagree on whether its rain clears Tuscaloosa by kickoff.
- Game day
Campus tailgating is banned before noon and College GameDay moved indoors, but the 6:30 PM CT kickoff stands, so the storm cuts into the day more than the game.