CLE to win+125
TLDR: Parker Messick brings his 4-seamer, which the Rays hit as badly as almost anyone, to a park where he has already won, and Tampa's late relief looked cold after a week off.
Point
- Messick at the Trop
Parker Messick allowed 1 run over 7 2/3 innings at Tropicana Field on July 26, so neither this lineup nor this building is new to him.
- Fastball vs. a weak spot
Messick has thrown his 4-seamer 52% of the time since a midseason change, and the Rays ranked 28th in wOBA against 4-seamers.
- Cold Rays relief
Tyler Wells had not pitched since September 12 and Cole Sulser not since September 26 before Game 1, and the rust showed.
- Off day after Game 2
Behind Foster Griffin, no Cleveland reliever threw more than 1 inning in Game 1, and with Wednesday off, Stephen Vogt can use all of them tonight.
Counterpoint
- Messick's mileage
Messick is at 193 innings, up from a previous high of 138 1/3, and he walked 6 in 6 2/3 ALDS innings.
- Rays at home
The Rays went 55-26 at Tropicana Field, the best home record in baseball, and Game 1 drew 40,542, the Trop's biggest crowd since 2010.
Neutral
- Weather
No weather — indoors at Tropicana Field.
- Caminero
Junior Caminero collided with Jonny DeLuca in the 9th inning of Game 1, but Kevin Cash says he is fine, so Tampa's lineup looks whole.