CLE to win+138
TLDR: Cleveland has already won at Tropicana Field this series, keeps Gavin Williams for Game 7 and can use every other arm tonight, and has José Ramírez on base at the top of a quiet lineup.
Point
- Game 1 at the Trop
Cleveland already won in this building, coming from behind late to win the series opener 7-3 with 2 homers and an 8th-inning go-ahead single.
- Shawn Armstrong
Armstrong has thrown 4 scoreless innings across 3 ALCS outings as an opener, so the Rays start against an arm they have not scored on.
- José Ramírez
Ramírez is hitting .324 over 10 playoff games with 7 hits this ALCS, the one steady bat in a lineup that has gone quiet.
- Game 7 arm
Gavin Williams is being held for a possible Game 7, so Stephen Vogt can use every other pitcher tonight and has no one else to save.
Counterpoint
- Freddy Peralta
Peralta held Cleveland scoreless for 6 innings in Game 2 and has a 0.99 ERA in 5 starts at his home park, where tonight's game is.
- No off day
Game 4's rainout took away the off day before Game 6, so a bullpen that covered 7 innings Sunday goes back out with no rest.
Neutral
- Weather
No weather — indoors at Tropicana Field.
- Travel
Both clubs flew overnight from Cleveland after Sunday's Game 5, so the short turnaround lands on both dugouts equally.