CLE to win+115
TLDR: Cleveland's swing-and-miss opener and an unscored-on bulk arm should win the early innings, while Chicago's bullpen plan loses its off-day cushion just as the Guardians can empty theirs.
Point
- The opener
Daniel Espino struck out 25 in 15⅓ regular-season innings, the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that plays best in a short first trip through a lineup.
- The bulk arm
Joey Cantillo threw 15 scoreless innings across 3 bullpen appearances, with 17 strikeouts and 4 hits allowed, and he is lined up behind Espino.
- No day off
Game 3 starts a run of 3 games in 4 days, and Will Venable says arms Chicago hasn't used this series may have to pitch.
- Steven Kwan
Kwan is 12-for-37 over his last 10 games and leads off, so Cleveland's in-form bat gets the most trips to the plate.
Counterpoint
- Sean Newcomb
Newcomb has a 2.61 ERA in 9 games against Cleveland this season, and as a lefty he lines up with Kwan and Chase DeLauter.
- Munetaka Murakami
Murakami is 11-for-40 with 4 home runs over his last 10 games, the bat Cleveland's short bullpen most needs to get past.
Neutral
- Weather
The forecast is sunny and near 75 at first pitch with a 10 mph north wind and no rain, so conditions don't favor either side.
- Travel
Both clubs had Tuesday off after Game 2 in Cleveland, and the trip to Chicago is a short hop for each of them.