BAL to win+433
TLDR: The bet lost by 23 for the reasons we listed against it. Fagnano could not throw, and Jacksonville's run defense held Henry to 57 yards. None of the edges we counted on, including home field, the short week and the thin front, showed up.
Point
- Thursday at home
The Ravens are 9-1 at home in Thursday primetime games, and that edge matters most on a week too short to prepare.
Didn't matterRavens trailed 17-3 at half, lost 33-10 at home - Henry vs. Jacksonville
Derrick Henry has 1,564 yards at 5.4 a carry in 15 career games against the Jaguars, and a backup-QB offense needs that.
Hurt usHenry ran 17 times for 57 yards - Jaguars' front
DaVon Hamilton (torn quad) and Eric Murray (elbow) are on season-ending IR, and Travon Walker (ribs) is questionable, so Henry runs at a thinner front.
Didn't matterThin front was never tested; Ravens managed 10 first downs - Coen's short week
Liam Coen said he could not start on Baltimore until after Sunday, and that a short week hampers his play-calling.
Didn't matterJaguars scored 33 and outgained Baltimore 319 to 227
Counterpoint
- Fagnano in relief
Joe Fagnano went 10 of 19 for 91 yards with 3 sacks and 2 turnovers at Buffalo, which lets Jacksonville load up against the run.
Hurt usFagnano went 10 of 18 for 60 yards, 2 interceptions - Run defense
Jacksonville allows a league-best 77.4 rushing yards a game, and that strength sits right in front of our only plan.
Hurt usHenry stuffed; only Hill's late 65-yard touchdown broke through
Neutral
- Weather
Mild mid-60s air with a passing shower or isolated storm possible, and most forecasts lean dry, so conditions should not tilt it.
Didn't matterRecap never mentions weather affecting play - Brissett waits
The Jacoby Brissett trade from Arizona will not close before kickoff, so this is Fagnano's game, and Baltimore then gets 11 days before the Chargers.
Hurt usFagnano started and played the whole game
