IU to win+136
TLDR: A crowd at the stadium's first top-5 game, a Buckeye line reshuffled again without Siereveld and a defense allowing 11.8 points pull this into the low-scoring game Indiana already won once.
Point
- The building
Memorial Stadium is sold out for the first top-5 game since it opened in 1960, and Indiana has won 19 straight there.
- Ohio State OL
Austin Siereveld, who had moved to right tackle after an injury there, misses a 2nd straight game, so the Buckeyes reshuffle their line again.
- Last meeting
Indiana beat Ohio State 13-10 in the 2025 Big Ten title game, so the Hoosiers have already won this kind of low-scoring fight.
- Ohio State in big games
Ohio State has lost 3 of its last 4 against top-10 teams, including a 24-23 loss at Texas in September.
Counterpoint
- Starters back
Brandon Inniss, Devin McCuin, Christian Alliegro, Jay Timmons and Phillip Daniels are all off the report, so most of Ohio State's Maryland absentees return.
- Jeremiah Smith
Smith has scored 11 touchdowns in his last 3 games and scored on his first 2 touches against Maryland, which is the matchup Indiana has to solve.
Neutral
- Weather
The kickoff forecast is 49 degrees and sunny with a 9 mph wind and 0% chance of rain, so neither deep passing game gets cut down.
- Rest and clock
Both teams kicked off around 11 a.m. CT last Saturday, so both get a normal week and neither has to adjust to an odd start time.