TEX to win-141
TLDR: Texas is missing 2 edge rushers, but Ole Miss is missing 4 defensive backs and maybe its left tackle, and it has to cover both gaps at night in Austin.
Point
- Ole Miss secondary
Safeties Edwin Joseph, MJ Preston and Nascar McCoy and corner Pat Broomfield are all out, which leaves less depth behind the coverage Manning throws against.
- Night kick at DKR
Texas gets a 6:30 PM home kickoff, the same slot as its Ohio State comeback, and both of its recent losses came in daytime games.
- Ole Miss on the road
Ole Miss is 1-1 in true road games, and its 1 trip into a big SEC stadium ended in a 52-28 loss at Florida.
- Ole Miss left tackle
Starting left tackle Terez Davis is questionable, so Texas's thinned edge group may get backup Connor Howes in a loud stadium.
Counterpoint
- Texas edge rush
Colin Simmons, the FBS sack leader at 10.5, and Richard Wesley are both out, so Lance Jackson, who has 1 sack, starts at end.
- Texas offense
Texas plays without running back Hollywood Smothers, guard T. Goosby, lineman Jaydon Chatman and receiver Kaliq Lockett, which leaves Manning fewer players to lean on.
Neutral
- Weather
Austin is forecast mostly sunny with a high near 88, light southeast wind and no rain, so the field should play clean for both teams.
- Sarkisian and Golding
Steve Sarkisian, in his 6th season, coached with Pete Golding at Alabama in 2019-20, so neither staff is facing a scheme it doesn't know.