NU to win+120
TLDR: Penn State shows up in a sold-out new building with its cornerback room gutted and a coach who just sat on a 17-0 lead, against the team that beat it last October.
Point
- Last meeting
Northwestern won 22-21 at Beaver Stadium last October, the loss that got James Franklin fired, so these Wildcats have already beaten Penn State.
- Penn State secondary
Cornerbacks Christian Askew, Joshua Johnson and Tyler Armstead are out and Daryus Dixson is questionable, which thins the group that has to cover Chiles.
- Campbell's 2nd half
Matt Campbell admitted he coached not to 'screw it up' as a 17-0 lead over Wisconsin became a 24-20 loss, and that kind of caution keeps an underdog in the game.
- The building
New Ryan Field opens sold out, with 35,000 seats as close as 48 feet to the sideline, a tight, loud room for a road offense short on receivers.
Counterpoint
- Northwestern run defense
Northwestern ranks 128th nationally against the run and gave Indiana 271 rushing yards, an easy fallback for a Penn State team missing receivers.
- Luke Dehnicke
The tight end caught 7 passes for 140 yards at Indiana and is now doubtful, taking away the target who hurt Indiana most last week.
Neutral
- Weather
Clear, dry and around 60 degrees at kickoff with no rain in the forecast, so the conditions shouldn't help or hurt either offense.
- Friday night
It's Northwestern's first Friday night Big Ten home game since Michigan State in 2021, and a building neither team has played in before.