ATL to win-170TLDR: Atlanta gets 9 days of setup, its best pitcher at home and a closer lined up, while Philadelphia arrives off a Sunday clincher, a Monday flight and no ace.
Point
- Sale vs. Philly
Chris Sale held these Phillies to a 2.08 ERA over 4 starts this year, so seeing him often has not helped them.
- Rest and travel
Atlanta clinched on September 20 and set up its staff, while Philadelphia clinched Sunday, flew Monday and plays Tuesday afternoon.
- No Wheeler
Zack Wheeler threw 97 pitches in Sunday's clincher, so Philadelphia's ace can't start Game 1 and it opens with a limited Luzardo.
- Truist Park
Atlanta went 52-29 at home and won the season series 9-4, and all 3 games of this series are in Atlanta.
Counterpoint
- October history
Philadelphia knocked out Braves teams with better records in both 2022 and 2023, so this core has won playoff games in this building.
- Harper vs. Iglesias
Bryce Harper is 6-for-12 with 4 home runs against closer Raisel Iglesias, which makes any close 9th inning a real risk.
Neutral
- Weather
Sunny, low 80s and light, variable wind for an afternoon first pitch, so the conditions don't favor the pitchers or the hitters.
- Robert Suarez
Setup man Robert Suarez made the roster after missing 3 months with an elbow injury, so he's a big arm but an unknown one.