ATL to win+104TLDR: Atlanta has a rested bullpen and a home clincher, and they face a Sánchez whose best pitch they already hit. Philadelphia has to win this game with a closer who may not be available.
Point
- Bullpen rest
Atlanta used only Fuentes, Lee and Iglesias in Game 1, so all 3 are available, while Duran's status is uncertain after 27 pitches.
- The changeup
Braves hitters batted .381 against Sánchez's changeup this season, and that pitch is how he usually gets out of trouble.
- Clinching at home
Home teams that won the opener of a best-of-3 Wild Card Series are 9-0 in those series.
- Truist Park
Atlanta went 52-29 at home this season and took 9 of 13 from Philadelphia, so this spot is familiar ground.
Counterpoint
- Sánchez's finish
Over his last 2 regular-season starts Sánchez struck out 16 and walked 1, so any September slump may already be over.
- October history
The Phillies had won 6 of 8 postseason games against Atlanta this decade, including the 2022 and 2023 Division Series.
Neutral
- Weather
The forecast is about 85 degrees with a light 5-10 mph southeast wind, so neither lineup gets help from the air.
- The crowd
Game 1 drew 30,127 with empty sections for a weekday afternoon start, and a similar slot means a quieter home edge again.