PHI to win +102−1UTLDR: The bet lost, and mostly for the reasons we listed against it. Nola gave up a 3-run homer in the 1st and Kerr and Holmes held the Phillies to 1 run over 5⅓ innings. None of our reasons for the bet ever paid off.
Point
- First pitch moved
Game 3 moved from 2 PM to 8 PM ET, giving Wheeler 6 more hours on 3 days' rest after his 97 pitches Sunday.
Didn't matterWheeler went 4 innings in relief, allowing Albies' 2-run homer - Closer
Jhoan Duran did not pitch in Game 2, so the Phillies' closer is fully rested for the final outs of an elimination game.
Didn't matterDuran threw a scoreless inning, but with no lead to protect - Atlanta's lefty plan
Dylan Lee allowed no homers to lefties in 102 regular-season plate appearances, then gave up back-to-back homers to Schwarber and Harper, and Atlanta's whole plan depends on lefties.
Hurt usLee didn't pitch; Kerr's lefty opener held Philadelphia scoreless for 3⅓ - October history
The Phillies knocked the Braves out of the NLDS in 2022 and 2023, so most of this core has already ended Atlanta's season twice.
Didn't matter2022 and 2023 played no part; Atlanta led 3-0 after 1
Counterpoint
- Atlanta's bulk arms
Ray Kerr and Grant Holmes each held the Phillies scoreless in September, and they are the 2 arms Atlanta plans to lean on tonight.
Hurt usKerr threw 3⅓ scoreless; Holmes allowed 1 run in 2 innings - Nola's last outing
Aaron Nola's last outing, on 2 days' rest against Tampa Bay, lasted 1 inning and cost 3 runs, a shaky lead-in if he starts.
Hurt usNola lasted 1⅔ innings, walked 2, and allowed Harris' 3-run homer
Neutral
- Weather
Truist Park is open-air, and the forecast is 80 degrees and clear with little wind, so conditions shouldn't favor either lineup.
Didn't matterConditions played no visible part; both clubs had 6 hits - Third base
Edmundo Sosa left Game 2 with a left inner-thigh problem but expects to play, and Otto Kemp or Derek Hill fills in if not.
Didn't matterSosa started at third, then left in the 9th